Robinhood Misses Q3 Earnings as Crypto Revenue Rises and Prediction Market Bets Grow - Decrypt

In brief

• Robinhood reported record third-quarter revenue of $1.42 billion, slightly below the roughly $1.43 billion expected, and earnings of $0.51 per share versus $0.55 expected.
• Event contracts revenue rose to $173 million from $156 million in the second quarter, and crypto revenue rose to $120 million from $100 million but fell 55% from a year earlier.
• Robinhood trimmed the top of its 2026 cost guidance to a range of $2.675 billion to $2.75 billion, and shares slipped in after-hours trading.

Robinhood, the trading app where more than 28 million people keep money to buy stocks and crypto and now bet on sports and elections, reported third-quarter revenue of $1.42 billion billion on Tuesday, missing the roughly $1.43 billion Wall Street expected

Earnings came in at $0.51 per share, missing the $0.55 analysts projected and down from $0.61 a year ago. Earnings per share is profit divided by the number of shares outstanding, and it is the figure investors use to call a quarter a beat or a miss.

Robinhood is the app that brought commission-free trading to a generation of first-time investors, which makes its quarterly report one of the clearest readings of what ordinary people are doing with their money. When customers trade more, deposit more or pile into new products, the shift shows up in these numbers.

Net income was $476 million, down 14% from $556 million a year earlier and 17% from $573 million in the second quarter. The quarter included a $67 million unrealized loss, meaning a drop in value on paper, on Robinhood Ventures Fund I, which cost $0.07 per share. Adjusted earnings per share, which exclude certain items, came to $0.60, down 3% from a year ago.

Event contracts, the yes-or-no bets that pay out $1 if a game, an election or an economic report goes a certain way, brought in $173 million, up from $156 million in the second quarter, when they overtook crypto revenue for the first time. Customers traded a record 16.4 billion of them, more than seven times a year earlier.

“I believe we’re at the very beginning of a prediction market supercycle,” CEO Vlad Tenev said in December last year, when Robinhood added NFL player contracts and parlay-style combos that pay only if every outcome hits.

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Crypto trading revenue rose to $120 million from $100 million in the second quarter, but remained down 55% from the $268 million Robinhood earned in the third quarter of 2025. Customers traded $50 billion in crypto during the quarter, down 38% from a year earlier, with $21 billion on the Robinhood app and $29 billion through Bitstamp, the crypto exchange it acquired

Robinhood Chain went live on July 1 as a layer-2 network, meaning a blockchain that runs on top of Ethereum to make transactions cheaper and faster. Its first weeks were driven by meme coins, joke-themed tokens, rather than the tokenized stocks it was built for, which are digital versions of company shares that trade on a blockchain.

By the end of August the chain had earned about $3.13 million in fees over 30 days, more than Ethereum and Base, which came in at $2.47 million and $2.89 million.

Hours before the report, Robinhood announced a deal with Ripple that brings RLUSD, a stablecoin (a crypto token designed to stay worth one dollar), to Robinhood Chain and Bitstamp, with an in-app rollout planned later this year. RLUSD has a market value above $2.5 billion, and Ripple will also supply Robinhood’s treasury software and lending for Bitstamp traders.

Robinhood shares closed Tuesday at about $94.61 and slipped in after-hours trading- The stock is down roughly 18% this year and about 37% below its 52-week high of $150.47.

Robinhood narrowed its 2026 outlook for adjusted operating expenses and stock-based pay to $2.675 billion to $2.75 billion, trimming the top of the $2.675 billion to $2.775 billion range it set in July.

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