Kroger Q2 Preview: 60% Chance Of A Post-Earnings Rise

Kroger (NYSE: KR), a company that operates retail food and drug stores, multi-department stores, jewelry stores, and convenience stores across the United States, is set to announce its fiscal second-quarter earnings on Wednesday, September 10, 2025. Analysts anticipate earnings of $1.00 per share on revenues of $34.13 billion. This would signify an 8% increase in earnings year-over-year and a slight rise in sales compared to the previous year’s results of $0.93 per share and $33.91 billion in revenue. Historically, KR stock has risen 60% of the time following earnings announcements, with a median one-day increase of 7.6% and a maximum observed rise of 17%.

Kroger forecasts FY 2025 identical sales (excluding fuel) to increase by 2.25%–3.25%, with adjusted EPS of $4.60–$4.80 and free cash flow estimated between $2.8–$3.0 billion. The company plans to execute selective store closures, accelerate openings, continue investing in e-commerce, and reinvest cost efficiencies into prices and operations to maintain growth.

The company has a current market capitalization of $45 billion. Revenue over the last twelve months stood at $147 billion, and it achieved operational profitability with $3.9 billion in operating profits and net income of $2.6 billion. While much will rely on how results compare to consensus and expectations, recognizing historical patterns might tilt the odds in your favor if you are a trader focused on events. Additionally, see Bigbear.ai: Will BBAI Stock Rebound To $10?

You may either trade according to historical odds before earnings or track post-earnings return patterns to inform your position afterward. That being said, if you seek upside with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative – having outpaced the S&P 500 and generated returns above 91% since its inception. See earnings reaction history of all stocks.

Kroger’s General Stores Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some insights into one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

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• There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the past five years, with 12 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns noted. Overall, positive 1D returns were realized approximately 60% of the time.
• Importantly, this percentage rises to 67% if we look at data from the last 3 years instead of the past 5.
• The median of the 12 positive returns = 6.3%, and the median of the 8 negative returns = -2.8%

Additional information for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings is summarized along with the statistics in the following table.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A strategy that carries relatively less risk (though it is ineffective if the correlation is weak) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings, identify a pair that shows the greatest correlation, and execute the corresponding trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D demonstrate the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the upcoming 5 days should the 1D post-earnings return be positive. Below is some correlation data based on both 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D pertains to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and the following 5D returns.

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

At times, the performance of peers can affect the stock response post-earnings. Indeed, pricing may commence prior to the earnings announcement. Below is some historical information regarding the past post-earnings performance of Kroger stock compared to the performance of peers that disclosed earnings just before Kroger. To ensure a fair comparison, peer stock returns also reflect post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

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