How the bombing of World’s largest Natural Gas deposit is putting Global LNG supply in chaos?

India will be among the major nations affected due to disruptions in South Pars Fields

By T N Ashok

Beneath the turquoise waters of the Persian Gulf, straddling the maritime border between Iran and Qatar, lies what may be the single most consequential piece of real estate on earth. The South Pars/North Dome field is the world’s largest natural gas reservoir, holding an estimated 1,800 trillion cubic feet of natural gas — enough, according to some estimates, to supply the entire planet for thirteen years.

For decades, this geological giant slumbered as a shared but quietly contested asset. Today, it is a battlefield. And the world is paying the price.

A Field Divided — By Geography, Ambition, and Fate; The Iranian portion, called South Pars, accounts for roughly 70 to 75 percent of Iran’s total domestic gas production, while Qatar’s side — the North Field — underpins the country’s position as one of the world’s largest LNG exporters, supplying roughly 20 percent of global LNG demand.

The two sides of the same geological formation have followed starkly divergent paths. Qatar has signed $39 billion in contracts with major international energy companies to develop the North Field, while Iran — despite possessing the second-largest gas reserves in the world after Russia — faces chronic domestic shortages, with winter deficits reaching 250 million cubic meters per day.

Iran’s underperformance is not geological. It is political. Sanctions, mismanagement, and isolation have left Tehran extracting a fraction of what Doha has built into a global empire. This disparity matters enormously now that the war has begun.

The Strike That Changed Everything; On March 18, 2026, an Israeli air raid targeted treatment facilities at Asaluyeh, the onshore processing hub for Iran’s South Pars field. The governor of Asaluyeh confirmed the facilities were “taken offline” to control fires, with no immediate disclosure of production losses.

Initial reports revealed that the damage caused to sections of South Pars makes up nearly 12 percent of Iran’s total gas production. While US officials denied prior coordination, one Israeli official told CNN that the strike was carried out in coordination with the US.

The irony is extraordinary. Israel — and arguably the US — struck a field that is geologically inseparable from Qatar’s North Dome, a nation that hosts the largest American military base in the Middle East. Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson described the strike as “dangerous and irresponsible,” emphasizing that “Iran’s South Pars gas field is an extension of Qatar’s North Field.”

This is not diplomatic language. It is a geological acknowledgment of a shared fate. Trump responded by threatening to “massively blow up the entirety” of South Pars if Iran continued striking Qatar — a threat of almost surreal circularity: threatening to destroy the world’s largest gas field to protect a country whose gas field is the same reservoir.

Iran’s Retaliation: Turning the Gulf into a Target Map; Iran’s response was swift and strategic. Iranian authorities announced that five facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar would be targeted, naming Saudi Arabia’s SAMREF refinery and Jubail petrochemical complex, the UAE’s Al Hosn gas field, and Qatar’s Ras Laffan refinery and Mesaieed petrochemical complex.

These are not random choices. They are the arteries of the Gulf’s petro-economy — refining hubs, LNG terminals, and export nodes that feed Europe, Asia, and South Asia. Iranian aerial attacks caused extensive damage to the world’s largest gas plant in Qatar, targeted a refinery in Saudi Arabia, forced the UAE to shut gas facilities, and set off fires at two Kuwaiti refineries.

Qatar has been forced to halt all gas production due to Iran’s counterattacks, disrupting global supplies and the production of fertilizer. Bahrain’s Bapco refinery was struck. Dubai’s airport — previously the world’s busiest for international flights — was shut briefly by a drone strike on a fuel tank nearby. Iran’s attacks and threats have nearly halted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, sending petroleum prices soaring 40 percent and roiling the global economy.

Can these facilities be resurrected? The short answer is: some yes, some slowly, and some perhaps not for years. Surface damage to refineries and LNG terminals can take 6 to 18 months to repair under peacetime conditions.

But damage to Ras Laffan could delay Qatar’s ability to get supplies to the market even after the war ends. South Pars, meanwhile, was already aging. Iran would need to invest at least $40 billion in pressure-boosting facilities to sustain output — a technology monopolized by Western companies that Iran cannot access under sanctions. Strike damage compounds an already terminal infrastructure decline.

Who Bears the Pain? The Regional Supply Shock; The impact is not evenly distributed. Japan relies on the Middle East for about 90 percent of its crude oil imports, mostly through Hormuz. South Korea gets about 70 percent of its crude from the Middle East and routes more than 95 percent of that through the strait.

Vietnam maintains oil reserves estimated to last less than 20 days; Pakistan and Indonesia around 20 days. For South Asia, particularly Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka — where energy import bills already strain sovereign finances — oil at $100-plus per barrel is not an economic inconvenience. It is a governance crisis.

Europe faces a different but serious problem. Natural gas prices in Europe surged from €30/MWh before the war to above €60/MWh within days — nearly double — before partially retreating. Some 30 percent of Europe’s supply of jet fuel originates from or transits via the strait, while one-fifth of global LNG supply passes through the waterway.

The continent spent two years diversifying away from Russian gas after 2022, only to find itself dependent on Qatari LNG — which is now under fire.

The Winners: Moscow and Beijing. The conflict is materially improving Russia’s competitive position in crude oil markets. With Middle East barrels facing logistical disruption, both India and China face strong incentives to deepen reliance on Russian supply. Russia, whose energy revenues were squeezed by Western sanctions and price caps, now finds its oil suddenly in demand at premium prices by energy-desperate Asian nations.

For Moscow, this war is a windfall. China is better positioned than most, due to its partnership with Iran and Russia, allowing it to import pipeline natural gas overland from Russia.

Iran has reportedly allowed Chinese vessels to pass through the strait even while blocking other shipping, and Iran is reportedly weighing allowing cargoes traded in Chinese yuan to transit Hormuz — a move that would challenge the US dollar’s dominance in global energy markets. China’s strategic and commercial reserves total around 1.3 to 1.4 billion barrels, covering about four months of imports. Beijing has prepared, stockpiled, and now watches its rivals — both American allies and European partners — scramble.

The deeper, more lasting consequence of this conflict may not be the immediate price spike but the structural rewiring of global energy flows. At present, the eleven countries openly engaged in major global conflicts account for 51 percent of global crude oil production and 56 percent of global gas production — a concentration of output affected by conflict not seen in over eighty years. That number alone should terrify energy planners.

If South Pars and Ras Laffan are severely degraded, the world loses not a marginal supplier but a geological cornerstone — a field that, at full Qatari development, was on track to supply 20 percent of global LNG by 2030. The replacement of that volume from US LNG, Australian gas, or African fields would take five to ten years and hundreds of billions in capital.

In the interim, Europe re-couples with Russian gas under economic duress, Asia scrambles for alternatives, and the petro-dollar’s geography is redrawn.

What begins as a battlefield shock hardens into a geoeconomic one. Iran, unable to win militarily, is winning asymmetrically — by raising the global cost of the war until the pressure for de-escalation becomes unbearable.

The world’s largest gas field is not just a prize in this conflict. It is the conflict’s most eloquent metaphor: two nations sharing the same geological fortune, pointing missiles at each other across the water, while the rest of the world holds its breath and watches the flames. (IPA Service)