Why your next Android upgrade is about to cost $100 more for the same specs

I’ve spent time reviewing spec sheets and industry reports to see where things are headed. Unfortunately, I have bad news for anyone hoping for an upgrade.

Your next phone will likely cost more than the last one, and 2026 is the year of the boring upgrade. Expect to see 2026 phones that look and feel suspiciously like 2025 phones.

With all the money spent on RAM, companies have little left for big hardware upgrades. Here is what you should know.

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I switched from a $1,000 flagship to a $200 budget device; here's what I learned

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By  Stephen Radochia

AI data centers are draining the smartphone industry

Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are the three corporations that collectively dominate the global memory market.

They manufacture the dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) that handles your phone’s multitasking and the NAND flash storage that holds your photos.

At the end of the day, these memory manufacturers are businesses. Right now, consumer electronics isn’t the most profitable place to be.

The money is in the enterprise sector, and AI data centers are outbidding consumer tech companies for high-density memory.

When a tech giant trains a new Large Language Model (LLM), they need thousands of specialized graphics processing units (GPUs).

Those GPUs require High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) chips, and memory manufacturers are reallocating production capacity to them.

The three bad options facing smartphone manufacturers

Android manufacturers, especially on budget and mid-range phones, make their money on thin margins. A $400 mid-range phone is priced based on its bill of materials, and memory ends up taking a big slice of the cost.

A price increase on that single part can erase much of the profit a phone manufacturer was expecting. That leaves smartphone brands with three bad choices.

First, they can eat the cost, lose money on every device sold, and hope to make it back on software services.

Second, they can downgrade the specifications to keep their manufacturing costs stable.

Third, they could pass the cost onto consumers.

Most brands probably go with the third option for flagships and the second for budget phones. This is a lose-lose scenario for consumers.

I’ve seen reports that mid-range phones that were moving toward 12GB of RAM are now dropping back down to 8GB to maintain their price tiers.

Even worse, some budget models are sliding back to 4GB or 6GB. In an era where apps are getting heavier.

On-device AI needs the one thing phones lack

The current marketing for on-device AI is ironic. Companies like Google and Samsung are telling us we need these new phones to run AI models locally.

But running those models requires massive amounts of RAM that are currently too expensive to put in the phone.

Google Gemini Nano, for example, needs a lot of headroom. If you remember, Pixel 9a was missing out on features because it only has 8GB of RAM.

To really get the most out of mobile AI, you need 12GB or 16GB, but the RAM tax is making those configurations a luxury.

Samsung’s latest flagship proves the trend

Take Samsung’s recent Galaxy S26 launch. Samsung occupies a unique position. They manufacture their own memory chips, and they build the world’s most popular Android smartphones.

If any company could insulate its customers from the memory crisis, it would be them. Yet the impact still got through. Depending on your region, the S26 is around 10% more expensive than last year’s model.

Samsung defenders will point to the storage upgrades to justify the price hike. Sure, they doubled the base storage — the S26 starts at 256GB instead of 128GB — but the base models still didn’t get any extra RAM.

If you had bought the 256GB S25 last year, it would have cost you $860. The 256GB S26 today costs $900. For those after the most affordable Galaxy entry, the cost just increased by a Benjamin.

Still, the phones come with a better chip, some AI improvements, battery upgrades, and a Privacy Display.

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But remember, the S25 already added plenty of upgrades over the S24 with no price increase, and Samsung’s unique position in the chip market helps soften the blow.

Samsung was only the beginning; other brands will likely follow

Carl Pei, CEO of Nothing, went on LinkedIn earlier this year to warn that smartphone prices were on the rise. He confirmed Nothing’s 2026 phones would cost more, without giving specifics.

Samsung is the first major brand to reveal its flagship phones this year, and the price tags show that indeed tech is getting more expensive. Other brands are likely to follow.

Apple, however, sits in a unique position. Thanks to their large volumes and long-term supply contracts, they aren’t as affected by volatile DRAM prices as other brands.

Add that iOS can run on less RAM than Android, and Apple is in a good spot. Still, we’ll have to watch how it plays out.

Last year’s flagship may be the better deal for now

For anyone with a 2024 or 2025 phone, hold onto it. The current spike in prices might continue all the way to 2027 until new production lines are up and running.

If you absolutely need a new phone, don't buy the 2026 models at full price. Refurbished flagships are a much better deal.

A refurbished Galaxy S25 gives you almost everything the S26 does at a much better price. You still get 12GB of RAM, but you skip the inflated cost of the newer model.