6% increase in mature node capacity for top ten this year

Chinese foundries are set to be the main drivers of  an increase of 6% in the capacity of the world’s top ten mature process foundries, according to TrendForce.

For mature nodes – 28 nm and above – average capacity utilisation increased by 5% to 10% in H2 compared to H1 and is forecast to climb to 75% next year,

Major mature node capacity expansion plans for 2025 include TSMC’s JASM fab in Kumamoto, Japan, as well as SMIC’s fabs in Lingang (Shanghai), Beijing, HuaHong Group’s Fab9 and Fab10, and Nexchip’s N1A3.

The automotive and industrial control sectors, which will have completed their inventory corrections throughout 2024, are expected to see a resurgence in demand supporting mature node utilisation rates.

Chinese foundries’ share of mature process capacity among the top 10 is expected to exceed 25% by the end of 2025 as they advance their speciality process technologies – particularly  the HV platform in particular – and with 28 nm already in mass production.

Mature process pricing is expected to remain under pressure due to average capacity utilisation remaining below 80%, however Chinese foundries may exert more pricing leverage due to continued localisation efforts and the need for upstream clients to secure domestic capacity in China. This could help alleviate some of the downward pressure on mature process pricing and stabilise prices.