All-round show helps JMM-led INDIA bloc win with increased majority

The INDIA bloc kept the BJP’s aggressive nativism at bay, thanks to strong support among Adivasis, Dalits and minorities and gained seats in both tribal and non-tribal areas, paving way for resounding wins.

In a rare victory for a non-BJP led coalition that is an incumbent in government in North India, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha-led alliance not only retained power in the State but also managed to increase its seat (by nine) and vote shares (by 9% points) compared to the 2019 Assembly elections (Tables 1, 2). These gains were largely due to decreases in support for third/unaligned parties.

The JMM’s performance was the strongest (34 wins of the 43 contested: 79% strike rate), but its allies were no slouches either indicating a decent allocation of seats by the INDIA bloc.

In contrast, the BJP’s ally, the AJSUP won only one of the 10 seats it contested.

The BJP led alliance won in the urban areas (49% to the INDIA bloc’s 40.4%: Table 7) but in other locales, the INDIA bloc came up trumps, with its vote share going up progressively as the milieu turned more rural.

The story of the election must be the INDIA bloc’s performance in the north eastern region of Santhal Parganaa butting West Bengal (Table 6).

The ruling coalition managed a 52.2% vote share (Table 6) and won 17 out of the 18 seats in a region where the BJP’s “infiltration from Bangladesh” pitch was at its shrillest. Except for North Chotanagpur where the NDA won 14 seats to the INDIA bloc’s 10, the ruling coalition won every other region.In the Kolhan region in the south, the INDIA bloc secured 46.1% votes, 3.4 points more than in 2019. The NDA led here during the LS poll, but was behind by eight seats (3 vs 11) compared to the INDIA bloc, marking a turnaround. In Palamu, the INDIA bloc forged ahead, winning five seats to the NDA’s four. The JMM led alliance increased its vote share by 10.1 points while the NDA’s went up by nearly a point, helping the former in seat terms.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha and 2019 Assembly elections, the INDIA bloc had won/led in mostSchedule Tribe reserved seats/segments. This hegemony continued in this election, with the bloc winning 50.7% of the votes (Table 3) and 27 out of the 28 seats (Table 4). It also gained in the nine SC reserved seats by winning five of them, again trumping the NDA in vote share - 44% vs 40.1%. The NDA was only able to gain in the unreserved seats (by two seats since 2019 to win 19) but even there the INDIA bloc came up trumps, winning 24.

METHODOLOGY

• Data for the maps and tables were sourced from the Election Commission of India. The urban-rural classification was done by aggregating night light intensity data on assembly constituencies, provided by the SHRUG database from the Development Data Lab.
• Seats with High Muslim population were identified based on estimations by Raphael Susewind using electoral rolls data.
• The shapefiles for maps were sourced from Datameet

Published - November 24, 2024 02:00 am IST