57% chance of La Nina developing between now and December: US forecaster

La Niña usually brings less rain and worsening drought conditions, which has the potential to affect agriculture worldwide

There is a 57% chance of La Niña emerging from now to December, and it is expected to persist through January to March 2025, a U.S. government forecaster said on Thursday.

La Niña, a climatic phenomenon characterised by cooler-than-average ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is associated with both floods and droughts affecting global agriculture, and higher Caribbean hurricane activity.

Hurricane Milton last month caused an estimated $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion in damage to Florida’s crops and agricultural infrastructure, according to a preliminary assessment released by the state’s Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services last month.

Both Hurricanes Helene and Milton are expected to have caused billions of dollars in damage in Florida.

La Niña usually brings less rain and worsening drought conditions, which also has the potential to affect agriculture globally.

The cycle between El Niño, La Niña, and a neutral phase typically lasts two to seven years.

Earlier this week, Japan’s weather bureau said there appeared to be signs of La Nina phenomena developing as winter approaches, but there is a 60% chance weather conditions would return to normal.

“This La Nina may impact crops in a negative way, impacting food security in some of the poorer countries in the world, such as Somalia, Ethiopia and the Sudan,” AccuWeather’s senior commodity forecaster, Dale Mohler, said.

However, “since this La Nina has been slow in starting and is expected to be weak and should diminish by late February or March, its impact on crops may be less than what you would typically see during a La Nina,” Mohler added.

Published - November 16, 2024 09:40 am IST