Bitcoin flashes a 90 Bull Score, but buyers are pulling back

Bitcoin’s Bull Score has climbed to 90 out of 100 after its latest rally, but weakening spot and futures demand has raised questions over whether BTC has enough buying support to resume its move higher.

Summary

• Bitcoin’s Bull Score reached 90 out of 100 after BTC broke above its 365 day moving average.
• Spot demand contracted by roughly 170,000 BTC over the past 30 days, while futures demand growth fell about 90% in 15 days.
• Bitcoin has struggled to hold above $87,000 as profit taking increased and leveraged traders reduced exposure.
• BTC may need renewed buying demand to reclaim the recent high and sustain another move higher.

CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index has jumped after Bitcoin broke above its 365 day moving average last week, a level the onchain analytics firm treats as confirmation of a bull market. Bitcoin traded just above $83,300 on Wednesday morning in Asia, up around 0.4% over the past 24 hours but down from its eight month high near $87,400.

The Bull Score combines several onchain and market indicators into one reading, with the latest figure leaving Bitcoin only 10 points below the maximum score.

Price action has cooled since BTC reached its recent high. Bitcoin briefly moved above $87,000 before sellers pushed it back toward $84,000, while resistance around $85,000 to $85,800 subsequently limited another move higher.

Crypto.news previously reported that Bitcoin’s move toward $85,000 initially drew support from spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds. U.S. spot funds took in $999 million on Sept. 21 and another $714.7 million on Sept. 22 as the rally gathered pace.

Bitcoin demand has fallen despite the Bull Score

Demand data tracked by CryptoQuant has moved in the opposite direction to the Bull Score.

The firm estimates that Bitcoin spot demand has contracted by roughly 170,000 BTC over the past 30 days. Its apparent demand measure compares newly mined Bitcoin with changes in the supply of coins that have remained unmoved for at least one year.

Apparent demand has been contracting throughout the month, indicating that the market has been absorbing fewer coins than the amount becoming available.

The slowdown follows a period in which buyers helped Bitcoin break through several price levels. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.39 billion in weekly inflows during Sept. 21 to Sept. 25, with all five trading sessions ending with net inflows. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $1.16 billion of the total.

Exchange activity has provided another sign of reduced immediately available supply. More than 13,800 BTC left Binance in one day last week, the exchange’s largest daily net outflow since 2023.

Binance Bitcoin reserves fell from around 705,000 BTC to 685,000 BTC over four days. Withdrawals can reduce the amount of Bitcoin readily available for trading, although exchange flow data does not reveal whether the coins were moved for long term holding, custody or another purpose.

Futures demand has cooled much faster

Weakness is more pronounced in Bitcoin’s derivatives market.

CryptoQuant estimates that growth in speculative futures demand fell from approximately 164,000 BTC on Sept. 14 to just 16,000 BTC by Sept. 29. The decline amounted to roughly 90% in 15 days.

Leverage had already started leaving the market after Bitcoin failed to hold above $87,000.

Binance Bitcoin open interest dropped from approximately $5.4 billion to $4.9 billion between Sept. 21 and Sept. 23, while cumulative volume delta fell from nearly $3 billion to $1.48 billion during the same period. Funding rates moved close to neutral as leveraged traders cut exposure following the rally.

More recent market data has continued to show open interest falling while Bitcoin trades around $83,000.

A reduction in leverage can remove some of the liquidation risk built up during a rally, but CryptoQuant’s latest figures specifically show that growth in speculative futures demand has slowed at the same time as spot demand has contracted.

Profit taking adds another test for Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s recent rally has left newer holders sitting on sizable paper gains.

According to CryptoQuant, recent buyers are holding an average unrealized profit of 33%, the highest level since December 2024.

Some holders have already taken advantage of those gains. Investors realized profits on 25,700 BTC on Sept. 22, making it the largest single day of profit taking recorded this year.

Bitcoin subsequently failed to maintain its move above $87,000 and returned toward the $83,000 to $84,000 region.

Long term holder activity has shown profit taking as well. Recent CryptoQuant data showed long term holders realizing profits while exchange reserves declined, with 12,153 BTC leaving trading platforms between Sept. 17 and Sept. 23.

Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said further rallies would become harder to sustain without another pickup in buying.

“Without fresh demand, rallies struggle to extend,” Moreno wrote. “With spot demand still in contraction and futures growth stalling, near-term upside becomes harder to sustain.”

Can Bitcoin continue higher with demand falling?

Bitcoin’s Bull Score and demand readings are measuring different parts of the market.

The 90 reading shows that most of the conditions included in CryptoQuant’s Bull Score remain consistent with a bullish market regime, particularly after Bitcoin moved above its 365 day moving average. The demand gauges, however, track whether enough new buying is entering the market to absorb available BTC.

Price has already struggled around the area reached during last week’s rally. Bitcoin retreated from roughly $87,400 and was trading near $83,300 on Wednesday, leaving the recent high as the first major area BTC would need to reclaim if buyers return.

The $85,000 region has emerged as an immediate hurdle. Sell orders were previously concentrated between $85,000 and $85,800 after the pullback, while Bitfinex analysts identified a dense buyer cost area around $85,000 to $86,500.

The lower side of the range has become important as well. Bitcoin recently tested support around $83,000 after retreating from the eight month high, while Bitget Wallet research lead Lacie Zhang placed the key pullback area between $81,500 and $83,000.

Macro conditions remain another variable for buyers. U.S. Treasury yields have climbed to multi year highs as markets weigh persistent inflation and the prospect of further Federal Reserve tightening. The U.S. 10 year Treasury yield reached around 5.23% on Wednesday after touching its highest level since 2007.

Traders are now waiting for the August personal consumption expenditures inflation report later Wednesday. The PCE index is closely watched by the Federal Reserve and could influence expectations for its next interest rate decision.

Bitcoin therefore enters the inflation release with its Bull Score close to the top of CryptoQuant’s range, but with spot demand contracting, futures demand growth down roughly 90% in 15 days and recent buyers holding their largest average unrealized profit since December 2024.