American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL) Releases Q1 2026 Earnings Guidance

27 Jan 2026, 16:16 by Mitch Edgeman · The Markets Daily

American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL – Get Free Report) issued an update on its first quarter 2026 earnings guidance on Tuesday morning. The company provided earnings per share guidance of -0.500–0.100 for the period, compared to the consensus earnings per share estimate of -0.290. The company issued revenue guidance of -. American Airlines Group also updated its FY 2026 guidance to 1.700-2.700 EPS.

American Airlines Group Trading Down 2.1%

Shares of NASDAQ:AAL traded down $0.31 during midday trading on Tuesday, hitting $14.26. The company had a trading volume of 15,541,759 shares, compared to its average volume of 55,136,523. American Airlines Group has a 12 month low of $8.50 and a 12 month high of $17.47. The firm has a fifty day simple moving average of $14.89 and a 200 day simple moving average of $13.30. The stock has a market cap of $9.42 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.47, a PEG ratio of 0.52 and a beta of 1.23.

American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL – Get Free Report) last released its earnings results on Tuesday, January 27th. The airline reported $0.16 earnings per share for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of $0.38 by ($0.22). American Airlines Group had a net margin of 1.11% and a negative return on equity of 18.14%. During the same period last year, the business posted $0.86 earnings per share. American Airlines Group’s quarterly revenue was up 2.5% on a year-over-year basis. American Airlines Group has set its Q1 2026 guidance at -0.500–0.100 EPS and its FY 2026 guidance at 1.700-2.700 EPS. Equities analysts forecast that American Airlines Group will post 2.42 EPS for the current fiscal year.

Analyst Ratings Changes

Several equities research analysts have commented on the stock. BMO Capital Markets raised shares of American Airlines Group to a “hold” rating in a research note on Tuesday, December 9th. Citigroup upped their price objective on shares of American Airlines Group from $19.00 to $21.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a research report on Wednesday, January 7th. Wells Fargo & Company began coverage on American Airlines Group in a report on Thursday, December 18th. They set an “equal weight” rating and a $17.00 target price on the stock. Weiss Ratings restated a “sell (d+)” rating on shares of American Airlines Group in a report on Monday, December 29th. Finally, TD Cowen reaffirmed a “buy” rating on shares of American Airlines Group in a research report on Wednesday, January 7th. Eight equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, seven have issued a Hold rating and two have assigned a Sell rating to the company. According to MarketBeat, the company has an average rating of “Hold” and an average target price of $17.61.

Get Our Latest Analysis on American Airlines Group

Key Stories Impacting American Airlines Group

Here are the key news stories impacting American Airlines Group this week:

Positive Sentiment: Record revenue, stronger balance sheet and bullish 2026 guidance: American reported record Q4 revenue ($14.0B) and full-year revenue ($54.6B), cut total debt by $2.1B in 2025, and guided FY2026 adjusted EPS to $1.70–$2.70 with expected free cash flow >$2B — a clear tailwind for future profitability. American Airlines Reports Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Financial Results
Positive Sentiment: Demand mix and premium strength: Management highlighted strong premium-cabin and corporate travel demand (bookings up in January, system revenue intake up double digits for early 2026), which supports higher-margin revenue and the company’s profit forecast. American Airlines forecasts 2026 profit above estimates on strong premium demand
Neutral Sentiment: Competitive pressure at key hubs: United’s big summer expansion at Chicago O’Hare escalates hub competition — a factor that could pressure fares or market share in a major U.S. market, timing/impact uncertain. United Airlines ramps up Chicago flights as O’Hare rivalry with American Airlines heats up
Negative Sentiment: Earnings miss and weak profitability metrics: AAL reported $0.16 EPS vs. $0.38 expected; GAAP net income fell sharply YoY and operating margins compressed — an immediate negative for near-term sentiment and valuation. American Airlines projects revenue growth for 2026, misses earnings estimates for fourth quarter
Negative Sentiment: Revenue and operational hits from external shocks: The company said the government shutdown reduced Q4 revenue by ~$325M and Winter Storm Fern caused >9,000 cancellations; Q1 guidance factors in a ~1.5‑point capacity reduction and a negative revenue hit, which clouds near-term results. American Airlines Group Inc. Reports Record Fourth-Quarter Revenue Despite Government Shutdown Impact

Hedge Funds Weigh In On American Airlines Group

Several large investors have recently modified their holdings of the stock. XTX Topco Ltd lifted its holdings in shares of American Airlines Group by 126.6% in the third quarter. XTX Topco Ltd now owns 75,068 shares of the airline’s stock worth $844,000 after acquiring an additional 41,944 shares during the last quarter. United Capital Financial Advisors LLC increased its stake in shares of American Airlines Group by 26.1% in the third quarter. United Capital Financial Advisors LLC now owns 13,247 shares of the airline’s stock valued at $149,000 after buying an additional 2,739 shares during the period. Voleon Capital Management LP acquired a new stake in American Airlines Group during the 3rd quarter worth approximately $1,537,000. Voloridge Investment Management LLC boosted its position in American Airlines Group by 19.5% during the 3rd quarter. Voloridge Investment Management LLC now owns 3,729,689 shares of the airline’s stock worth $41,922,000 after buying an additional 609,457 shares during the period. Finally, Quantessence Capital LLC bought a new stake in American Airlines Group during the 3rd quarter worth approximately $145,000. 52.44% of the stock is owned by institutional investors.

American Airlines Group Company Profile

(Get Free Report)

American Airlines Group Inc is a leading global airline holding company headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas. Formed in December 2013 through the merger of AMR Corporation (parent of American Airlines) and US Airways Group, the company operates one of the world’s largest passenger and cargo networks. Its subsidiaries include American Airlines, which provides mainline service, and American Eagle, a network of regional carriers operating short- and medium-haul routes on behalf of the mainline carrier.