Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) Issues Q1 2026 Earnings Guidance

14 Feb 2026, 12:24 by Sarita Garza · The Markets Daily

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO – Get Free Report) updated its first quarter 2026 earnings guidance on Thursday. The company provided EPS guidance of 0.170-0.190 for the period, compared to the consensus EPS estimate of 0.250. The company issued revenue guidance of $680.0 million-$690.0 million, compared to the consensus revenue estimate of $692.0 million. Geo Group also updated its FY 2026 guidance to 0.990-1.070 EPS.

Geo Group Trading Up 5.4%

Shares of GEO stock opened at $14.20 on Friday. Geo Group has a fifty-two week low of $12.81 and a fifty-two week high of $32.09. The company has a 50 day moving average price of $16.51 and a 200 day moving average price of $18.26. The stock has a market capitalization of $1.98 billion, a P/E ratio of 7.80 and a beta of 0.73. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.10, a quick ratio of 1.62 and a current ratio of 2.01.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO – Get Free Report) last released its earnings results on Thursday, February 12th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.25 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, meeting analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.25. Geo Group had a return on equity of 8.36% and a net margin of 9.67%.The firm had revenue of $707.70 million during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $667.23 million. During the same period last year, the business posted $0.13 earnings per share. Geo Group’s revenue was up 16.5% compared to the same quarter last year. Geo Group has set its Q1 2026 guidance at 0.170-0.190 EPS and its FY 2026 guidance at 0.990-1.070 EPS. Equities research analysts predict that Geo Group will post 0.83 EPS for the current fiscal year.

Analysts Set New Price Targets

A number of research firms recently weighed in on GEO. Zacks Research upgraded shares of Geo Group from a “strong sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a research note on Friday, January 9th. Wall Street Zen raised shares of Geo Group from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating in a research report on Saturday, December 13th. Weiss Ratings reaffirmed a “hold (c)” rating on shares of Geo Group in a research report on Monday, December 29th. Finally, Jones Trading dropped their target price on Geo Group from $37.00 to $33.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a report on Friday. Three analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and two have issued a Hold rating to the company. According to MarketBeat.com, the stock has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus price target of $34.00.

Get Our Latest Stock Analysis on GEO

Geo Group News Roundup

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

Positive Sentiment: Q4 revenue beat and EPS in line — GEO reported $707.7M of revenue (up 16.5% Y/Y), above consensus, and reported $0.25 EPS in Q4, matching street estimates; revenue strength is the main near-term bullish catalyst. Press Release
Positive Sentiment: Analyst backing remains — Jones Trading trimmed its price target from $37 to $33 but maintained a “Buy” rating, implying substantial upside from current levels and supporting positive sentiment. Benzinga
Neutral Sentiment: Leadership change announced — CEO J. David Donahue will retire effective Feb. 28 and founder/executive chairman Dr. George Zoley will return as Chairman & CEO under a new employment agreement; market reaction is mixed (stability/continuity vs. governance questions). Business Wire: Reorganization
Neutral Sentiment: Full Q4 materials available — earnings press release, slide deck and earnings call transcript are posted, providing detail for analysts and investors to model results and assumptions. Slide Deck Earnings Transcript
Negative Sentiment: 2026 guidance below consensus — GEO gave FY2026 EPS guidance of $0.99–$1.07 (consensus ~$1.27) and Q1 EPS guidance of $0.17–$0.19 (consensus ~$0.25), which is the primary bearish driver and explains some intra-day pressure despite the revenue beat. Press Release (guidance)
Negative Sentiment: Legal risk persists — reports that GEO was denied a rehearing in litigation add regulatory/legal overhang that could affect valuation and investor sentiment. CourtHouse News

Institutional Trading of Geo Group

A number of hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently made changes to their positions in GEO. Quinn Opportunity Partners LLC purchased a new stake in shares of Geo Group in the 4th quarter valued at about $602,000. Rubric Capital Management LP increased its position in Geo Group by 16.7% during the fourth quarter. Rubric Capital Management LP now owns 3,486,915 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $56,209,000 after buying an additional 500,000 shares during the period. Continental General Insurance Co. lifted its stake in Geo Group by 10.1% in the fourth quarter. Continental General Insurance Co. now owns 4,684,474 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $75,514,000 after buying an additional 430,000 shares during the last quarter. Hudson Bay Capital Management LP acquired a new stake in shares of Geo Group in the fourth quarter valued at approximately $1,612,000. Finally, First Trust Advisors LP grew its position in shares of Geo Group by 47.7% during the fourth quarter. First Trust Advisors LP now owns 50,170 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $809,000 after acquiring an additional 16,192 shares during the last quarter. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 76.10% of the company’s stock.

Geo Group Company Profile

(Get Free Report)

The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO’s integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.