‘US lonelier power, rising China: Where EAM Jaishankar sees India in next 5 years?

On India EAM Jaishankar said, country has significant growth potential, supported by its demographics and the possibility of pursuing newer development pathways.

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said the United States has deliberately positioned itself as a “lonelier power” amid a rapidly changing global order, while China’s rise has intensified geopolitical competition and prompted countries to rethink their international partnerships.

Speaking at the 62nd Munich Security Conference, EAM S. Jaishankar said the global landscape was increasingly defined by Washington’s strategic repositioning and Beijing’s growing influence, with competition between major powers extending beyond traditional geopolitical rivalries to the use of economic and strategic leverage.

“No one in the room would disagree with the fact that the landscape today is primarily marked by a radical repositioning of the United States. A repositioning which is a posture of choice and, in a way, it has deliberately become a lonelier power,” he said.

He described China’s rise as another defining feature of the emerging global order, noting that Beijing’s self-perception as a unique country was, in many ways, also reflected in reality.

“We are looking at very sharp competition. That competition today, not limited to these two countries, has led to a weaponisation of any leverage that any country has. And that competition coexists with the complexity of interdependence,” Jaishankar said.

Muultipolarity accelerating, multi-alignment becoming the norm

Jaishankar said the changing international order had accelerated the emergence of multipolarity, creating greater scope for countries to pursue independent foreign policy choices and build relationships with multiple global powers.

Explaining the concept of a “third way”, he said countries were increasingly looking beyond rigid alignments and exploring ways to engage with competing powers while safeguarding their own interests.

“The third way, at one level, can be to stay away from others, but since that is not possible in a much more interdependent world, I think how to engage while hedging and diversifying. What will come into increasing practice will be the idea of multi-alignment,” he said.

He added that countries would increasingly maintain relationships with global players whose interests did not always align, making strategic flexibility a necessity rather than an exception.

“The idea that countries will have relationships with players which may not always be easy to harmonise, but nevertheless are a reality, is a compulsion for countries. It’s a sort of strategy of advancing by hedging,” Jaishankar said.

He also flagged growing pressure on multilateral institutions, particularly the United Nations, which he said was visibly gridlocked. As a result, smaller groupings and issue-based partnerships could assume greater importance in international cooperation.

Otlines the agenda for emerging and middle powers

The External Affairs Minister argued that emerging and middle powers had considerable opportunities to work together on international peace and security, trade, investment and other shared priorities.
He said countries outside the group of major powers could pool resources, support one another’s diplomatic efforts and play a constructive role in addressing conflicts and tensions.

Citing India-EU trade negotiations as an example, Jaishankar pointed to the conclusion of nearly 25 years of negotiations as evidence of what sustained cooperation between partners could achieve.

He also highlighted supply chain resilience, advanced manufacturing, healthcare, talent mobility, connectivity, climate action, defence and space as key areas where emerging and middle powers could collaborate.

On healthcare, he called for more diversified production of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and pharmaceuticals to strengthen health security.

He also stressed the importance of a better flow of talent and skills, particularly as global demand and demographic trends increasingly diverge.

In defence, he said changing circumstances were challenging established systems and traditional approaches, creating opportunities for smarter defence capabilities and new forms of cooperation.

“Connectivity is an important agenda for emerging and middle powers. So, indeed, is climate action and sustainability. The circumstances have made it even more urgent,” he said.

Jaishankar added that transformations in the space sector and the changing nature of defence production and consumption offered further scope for collaboration.

“I would argue that there is today a substantial agenda for emerging and middle powers to cooperate. The world is changing, its agenda is changing, the landscape is changing, the architecture is changing,” he said.

Where does India stands in 5 to 10 years from now?

Assessing India’s position over the next five to 10 years, Jaishankar said the country has significant growth potential, supported by its demographics and the possibility of pursuing newer development pathways.

He argued that India did not necessarily have to follow the conventional industrialisation models adopted by earlier economies, as technological and economic changes were opening up new possibilities.

“In the case of India, because we have decades of high growth ahead of us, and we have all said and done, a demography that will sustain that growth,” he said.

Jaishankar added that a rapidly evolving global economy could allow countries such as India to explore more contemporary approaches to industrialisation and economic development.

He also noted that middle powers would not necessarily progress at the same pace, with some likely to strengthen their positions, others maintaining their standing and some potentially losing ground.

“Among the middle powers, some will peel off, some will stay put, some may drop down a bit. That is the reality. That will be part of the evolution of the global order,” he said.

De-risking, diversification shaping new global architecture

Jaishankar said emerging and middle powers were increasingly focused on diversifying partnerships and reducing risks across their economies, security arrangements and supply chains.

He said countries were exploring new arrangements and building cooperation around specific agendas rather than relying on complete agreement on every issue.

“The operating principle for emerging and middle powers should be, and perhaps is already, a reasonable degree of convergence,” he said.

He argued that countries no longer needed identical viewpoints or an exceptionally high degree of shared interests to cooperate.

“The days when you have to have an identity of views or a very strong congruence of interest, I think that’s too high a bar today. If you have enough touch points, that is good enough for countries to work together,” he added.

Jaishankar said the gradual process of de-risking, diversification and strategic hedging was paving the way for a new global architecture, in which emerging and middle powers could play a more influential role.

(with ANI inputs)

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