Weather Update: IMD predicts above-normal heatwave days likely to hit parts of India in May
Weather Update: The IMD has forecast above-normal heatwaves and above-normal rainfall across most of India in May, with the southwest monsoon expected over the Andaman Islands around May 14-16, though developing El Nino conditions could threaten the broader monsoon season.
by Zee Media Bureau · Zee NewsWeather Update: The India Meteorological Department has released its monthly forecast, warning of above-normal heatwave days in several regions while simultaneously predicting above-normal rainfall for most of the country, and flagging the early arrival of the southwest monsoon over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands around May 14-16. The IMD has placed several regions on high alert for heatwaves, including the Saurashtra region of Gujarat, Maharashtra, the southern parts of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, northern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and coastal states, including Tamil Nadu and Odisha. These areas are expected to experience at least three to four more heatwave days than normal.
Temperatures are forecast to peak during two windows, around May 8 to 14 and again between May 22 and 28, when heatwave conditions could intensify across much of northwest India. Some parts of India have already been dealing with punishing heat, with mercury touching 47.6 degrees Celsius in Banda, Uttar Pradesh, last week. Several regions experienced severe heatwave days when temperatures ran more than 6.5 degrees above normal, particularly in parts of Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Vidarbha, Haryana, and Punjab.
While average daytime temperatures are predicted to remain near-normal across much of the country, night-time temperatures will stay above normal, a trend the IMD's Director General, Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, linked directly to climate change. "This is linked to climate change, which is making nights much warmer than before," he said.
Above-Normal Rainfall Expected
Despite the heatwave warnings, May also brings the prospect of significantly above-normal rainfall across most of India. The IMD forecasts monthly rainfall at over 110 per cent of the long-period average, with below-normal rainfall expected only in parts of east, northeast, and east central India.
The first western disturbance of the month is expected to arrive over northwest India around May 2, bringing rain to Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and adjoining plains until around May 6.
Mohapatra noted that May is typically India's most active month for thunderstorm activity. "May is when we experience the maximum thunderstorm activity, so we could expect the same this year. This will keep day temperatures to normal to below-normal over many parts of the country, except the southern peninsula, some parts of northeast and northwest India, where above-normal day temperatures are likely," he said.
Monsoon On Horizon - But El Nino Looms
The southwest monsoon is expected to arrive over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands around May 14-16, marking the formal beginning of the monsoon season. However, the IMD has flagged a concern that could affect the quality of the monsoon further down the line.
Current ENSO-neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific are evolving towards El Nino, the periodic warming of Pacific waters that has historically been linked to weaker monsoon seasons, droughts, and below-average rainfall in India. Most climate models indicate El Nino is likely to develop in July, after the monsoon onset, and could continue through early 2027. The IMD is monitoring ocean conditions closely and is expected to release a detailed monsoon onset forecast in mid-May, followed by region-wise seasonal rain predictions.