Amount energy, mortgage payments increased since Iran war

How much more are consumers paying now for energy, fuel, and on mortgage repayments than before the US began launching strikes on Iran at the end of February?

The latest conflict in the Middle East, which has been ongoing for nearly seven months now, continues to have a profound knock-on effect on global energy markets - leading to price spikes across the board.

Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, we saw something similar, however, before the most recent escalation in and around Iran, energy inflation had settled down to a large extent.

Since March though, Irish consumers have been feeling the effects of continuing price hikes for many products and services, but how significant have they been?

Diesel and petrol

Back at the end of February, both a litre of diesel and petrol were costing around €1.70 on many forecourts.

Right now though, diesel is up to €2.15 per litre and petrol is around the €2-a-litre mark at a lot of pumps, and it is worth noting that excise duty cuts of 32 cent a litre for diesel and 27 cent a litre for petrol are included in those prices.

The net effect of those increases is that, compared to this time almost seven months ago, a litre of diesel is costing motorists roughly 45 cent more per litre, with petrol costs around 30 cent more per litre.

Depending on the size of the vehicle, the typical car can have a fuel tank that holds anywhere between 40 and 70 litres.

Based on the lower end of that scale (40 litres), a full tank of diesel is now around €18 more expensive, with a fill of petrol costing €12 more.

But for vehicles with a bigger tank (70 litres), it is going to cost €31.50 more to fill it, and an extra €21 for a full tank of petrol.

All of that means that many drivers are paying well over €150 for a full tank of fuel.

Home-heating oil

Home-heating oil is probably the fuel that has seen the most extreme jumps in pricing this year.

Before the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut and energy infrastructure in the Middle East started to come under attack, 1,000 litres of home-heating oil cost around €970.

By the first week in April, however, the price had nearly doubled to €1,771.

In July, with demand lowering in the warmer weather and the conflict easing somewhat, that same 1,000 litres fell back to €1,155.

But in recent weeks the price has jumped back up to around €1,616 - just as temperatures are starting to cool and boilers are being turned on again.

Right now, someone ordering a 1,000-litre fill of home-heating oil is paying roughly €646 extra compared to the end of February.

Energy

It is not just surging oil prices and the knock-on effect on diesel, petrol, and home-heating oil that's hurting consumers.

With supply chains disrupted, the Middle East conflict has also pushed up European wholesale gas and electricity prices (those are the prices suppliers themselves pay).

This in turn has begun to feed through to Irish households.

Wholesale gas prices are currently double what they were this time last year.

While figures from the Central Statistics Office published this week show wholesale electricity prices were 77% higher in August, when compared with the same month in 2025.

Some of the jump in the cost of electricity is down to the fact that in Ireland nearly half of all electricity is generated using gas.

Since March all of the main energy suppliers here have hiked gas and electricity prices for customers (by roughly 8%-11%).

Analysis by comparison site bonkers.ie suggests these increases will result in an average household's yearly electricity bill going up by €180 from next month, with average gas bills rising by around €140.

Mortgages

The considerable jumps in energy costs outlined above have started to fuel price rises across the whole economy, which is driving up inflation estimates for 2026.

Policymakers aim to keep the inflation rate around the 2% mark in an economy with a healthy level of growth, but current projections from the likes of the Government and Central Bank have it running at well above 3%.

To slow inflation down and avoid the risk of overheating an economy, the European Central Bank (ECB) uses the very blunt tool of increasing interest rates for borrowers and savers.

The higher the rate, the less people tend to borrow and spend.

And earlier this month, the ECB increased its main borrowing rate from 2.4% to 2.65%.

This was the second 0.25 percentage-point rise this year.

The most immediate effect of such hikes is higher mortgage repayments for borrowers.

Combined, the two rate rises this year (June and September) mean tracker mortgage holders (there are around 100,000 in Ireland) are paying roughly €26 more per month in repayments for every €100,000 borrowed.

For a tracker mortgage customer with €100,000 remaining on their loan, from next month (when the ECB hike takes effect) they will easily be paying more than €300 a year extra in repayments compared to May.

The rate rises could take a little longer to feed through to those on variable and fixed rates, but they will definitely put upward pressure on other mortgage rates over time.

Overall increase in bills

It's extremely difficult to determine exactly how much extra every individual and household is having to fork out on bills due to rising costs.

There are also other household costs that aren't included in the below calculations.

The final figures aren't considered a determination of exactly how much in total a household spends, but instead are provided to give a sense of the extra outgoings as a result of price increases since the end of February.

Obviously, the assumptions below can vary wildly from one household to the next - but the calculations offer some insight into how much all of these price increases combined are adding to everyone's costs.

To illustrate the potential impact, we've calculated the additional annual cost for a household based on current prices and the following assumptions.

Fuel - One large family car/SUV, using diesel, driving 20,000 km a year, with a fuel-consumption rate of 6 litres/100 km.

March: 1,200 litres at €1.70 a litre = €2,040

September: 1,200 litres at €2.15 a litre = €2,580

Difference: + €540

Home-heating oil - A prominent seller of home-heating oil, Glen Fuels, estimates its average customer uses up to 1,500 litres annually.

March: 1,500 litres at €0.97 per litre = €1,455

September: 1,500 litres at €1.616 per litre = €2,424

Difference: + €969

Energy - An average household using both electricity and gas (earlier this year comparison site switcher.ie estimated average yearly household energy bills coming in at €1,867 for electricity and €1,632 for gas).

March: Electricity: €1,867 and Gas: €1,632

September: Electricity: €2,047 and Gas: €1,772 (Note: these figures combine the switcher.ie annual estimates and bonkers.ie estimates for annual increases mentioned above)

Difference: Electricity: + €180 and Gas: + €140

Mortgage - A tracker mortgage holder with €100,000 remaining on the loan.

Difference between March and October (ECB rate increase takes effect from October): €26 per month = + €312 in annual repayments.

Overall annual difference:

Fuel: + €540

Home-heating oil: + €969

Energy (electricity and gas): + €320

Mortgage repayments: + €312

Total estimated increase in annual costs: €2,141

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