What are the key areas of debate ahead of Budget 2025?

It is one of the most hotly anticipated budgets in recent memory.

And while money is on the menu, for once it is not just financial reasons that are focusing minds.

This Tuesday, the Coalition will publish the fifth and final budget of its lifespan, marking what some argue could be considered the "full term" of its time in office.

Once the budget details are out of the way, the Dáil and Seanad must pass a finance bill enacting the economic promises - a task expected to be completed on, or before, Thursday, 10 October by which time the speculation about the timing of the looming general election will have reached fever pitch.

Government and opposition parties will be hoping their differing budget positions pay out big in the casino of a general election, which depending on which Leinster House rumour you currently believe could be called as soon as next Friday or as late as February or March.

Unlike the relative lack of drama in recent budgets compared to the "if I have it I'll spend it" Charlie McCreevy Celtic Tiger era, Tuesday's budget has more riding on it than in recent years, both for politicians and the wider public.

Eye-catching tax promises, long-stated political promises, childcare supports, housing help and increases to core social welfare rates will all be in the spotlight on Tuesday - each issue hugely significant for the coming election.

Budget 2025 is solely in the gift of the Government, but opposition parties have presented their own alternatives, and intense debate on whose plans are best lies ahead from Tuesday.

There are a number of key areas.

Universal Social Charge

It has been something of a linguistic joke over the past 14 years that the Universal Social Charge is still in place.

First introduced by the late Fianna Fáil finance minister Brian Lenihan in Budget 2011 as a "temporary" measure, the USC is now part of the tax and political furniture in Ireland -although it is technically still temporary and could be completely removed at some point in the future.

That time is not quite upon us yet.

Right now, the Government and Opposition parties are variously promising to remove the USC for some people and reduce it for others as part of their Budget 2025 and alternative budget documents.

The Coalition parties of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Greens have indicated that the USC will be reduced from 4% to 3% on incomes between €25,760 and €70,044, following on from a 0.5% reduction in last year's budget by former finance minister and now EU commissioner Michael McGrath.

A 1% reduction to USC would be the largest cut introduced by this Government since it came to office in 2020, a fact likely to be stitched into plenty of media engagements by Coalition ministers over the next few days.

However, at least according to opposition parties, it is not enough, where other equally eye-catching offers are being made to voters.

Sinn Féin in particular has placed the USC firmly in its political cross hairs, with Party Leader Mary Lou McDonald and Finance Spokesperson Pearse Doherty both saying it is the key tax promise during the party's alternative budget launch on Thursday.

Under Sinn Féin's proposals, the party would abolish the USC rate on incomes up to €45,000, including removing it for incomes up to €30,000 in its first year in office if it enters government and increasing that figure to €45,000 in its second year.

The party says the alternative budget promise is designed to ensure the "average worker" does not continue to pay the USC, while still protecting the tax base.

And its view is shared to a degree by People Before Profit-Solidarity, which wants to abolish USC for all incomes under €100,000 - a tax gap it says would be partly balanced out by a long-standing "millionaire's tax" on, well, millionaires.

The Social Democrats has not called for a reduction in USC as part of its alternative budget plans, instead saying the focus should be on medium to long-term public service infrastructure improvements and prioritising shorter-term funding for people in need, while Labour intends to index all tax rates including USC at 4.5%.

Social welfare rates and one-off payments

Social welfare rates are traditionally one of the first areas people and politicians look to when budgets are announced, and this year will be no different.

It is widely expected that Minister for Social Protection Heather Humphreys will see in the region of a €12-to-€15 increase for people in receipt of weekly payments, with raises likely to focus on pensioners, carers and people with disabilities.

Coupled with that, more "once-off" payments have also been widely flagged, with energy credits in the region of €250, rent tax credits and an increase in childcare supports likely as part of a cost-of-living package that, while not on the same scale as recent years, is still promised to be significant.

And there is a growing expectation that at least some of these changes will be "front-loaded" and paid out this October, rather than in the new year, raising further suspicions of an autumn election.

Social Democrats has called for the weekly pension and jobseekers' allowance to increase by €25 and for a €360 energy credit, while Labour is seeking across-the-board €20 social welfare rises, two energy credits of €150 each, and a €250 once-off fuel allowance payment.

Sinn Féin, meanwhile, wants to introduce a €2.3bn cost-of-living package which would include a €20 increase in core social welfare payments, €450 in energy credits and a €300 fuel allowance.

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The issue of across-the-board once-off energy credits remains the subject of some public discussion, with an ongoing debate over whether parties should be promising universal support or focusing what money is available on those who need it most.

That discussion is likely to be well-aired this coming week.

Just don't expect any politicians to decide the lead up to a general election is the moment for a major philosophical or moral u-turn on a key financial support for voters.

Children and families

Another key area to watch out for is childcare, with the Government likely to put forward a €1.2bn series of supports in Budget 2025.

At least that is according to Green Party Leader and Minister for Children Roderic O’Gorman, who told reporters at his party's recent pre-Dáil think-in that the funding is a key priority for the Greens - a claim Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil may privately dispute, saying they too want to help hard-pressed parents and families.

The Government is also considering a repeat of a double child benefit payment paid out before Christmas, and a once-off €560 child benefit payment for parents immediately after a birth.

On the other side of the Dáil chamber, Sinn Féin is calling for a €560 per child payment in the form of child benefit before Christmas, as well as a €10 increase to help address child poverty, while Labour - whose finance spokesperson Ged Nash said the Government "is not ashamed enough about child poverty" - wants to fund 6,000 more public childcare places and a full year of paid parental leave.

The Social Democrats meanwhile have called for free GP visits for children under 12 and an increase to €350 a week for payments to new and adoptive parents, while People Before Profit-Solidarity is seeking a €205 child benefit increase.

Housing

What new policies the Government puts forward to address the housing, renting and homelessness crises facing the country will inevitably be at the forefront of any Budget 2025 debate in the coming days.

And given the record 14,486 people who are officially homeless, a surge in house prices now exceeding the Celtic Tiger era, and a similar rise in rents, what is announced on Tuesday will also play a key role in the election campaign that follows.

While the usual caveat applies that no details are confirmed until Minister for Finance Jack Chambers and Minister for Public Expenditure Paschal Donohoe's Dáil Budget Day speeches on Tuesday, the Government has already been clear on its housing policy budget intentions.

The Coalition is expected to increase the current €750 rent tax credit to €1,000 next year, in addition to a potential €250 "top up" payment for this year.

The Help to Buy Scheme which currently allows first time buyers purchasing a new build home under €500,000 a €30,000 tax refund subject to certain conditions, is also likely to be extended, while the odds are that the Government will also announce fresh supports for mortgage holders through the extension of Budget 2024's €1,250 mortgage interest relief.

Opposition parties will also be targeting housing, with Sinn Féin saying it wants to give renters a month's rent tax credit, ban rent increases for three years and abolish the property tax with an initial 20% cut.

Labour meanwhile wants to increase the rent tax credit to €1,500 and spend €70m more on turning derelict buildings into homes.

The Social Democrats wants to double the budget for homeless prevention and increase the vacant homes tax from 0.5% to 10%, and People Before Profit-Solidarity wants to increase the rent tax credit to €3,000 and introduce what it describes as a "use it or lose it" tax on vacant or derelict buildings.

Given the importance of housing in Ireland right now, expect a big focus from the wider public on the calls, and inevitably, a big row between the Government and opposition parties when the Budget 2025 details are announced.

Residential Zoned Land Tax

On this one it has not been all plain sailing within the Coalition in recent weeks while the public dog fight to appeal to each Coalition party’s voter base has seemingly been resolved this weekend.

As has been well-aired in recent weeks, in 2021 the Coalition agreed to introduce a 3% tax based on the market value of unused residential zoned land, in an attempt to address concerns over land hoarding during a housing crisis and surging land prices period.

Over the summer, the policy sparked a high-profile Coalition row when Minister for Finance Jack Chambers said it may need to be delayed due to a potential unintended impact on "active" farmers - a delay the Green Party insisted must not happen, comparing the potential situation to withholding food during the famine.

As recently as the Dáil leaders’ questions debate on Thursday, Tánaiste and Fianna Fáil Leader Micheál Martin had said discussions were continuing to find a breakthrough.

And, hold your breath, that solution has now been found, with Green Party TD Steven Matthews confirming to RTÉ News on Friday night that a "mechanism" has been agreed by the Coalition partners to allow the tax to be introduced in February.

The question now is who will get the credit with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael keen to woo the farming sector vote and the Greens equally keen to frame the deal as the party standing up for people in need of housing and homes - angles that could be key to the post-budget jockeying for positioning.

Election countdown

It should never be lost on people, of course, that a budget is first and foremost about how the policies introduced on Tuesday impact on the money in your pocket.

But when those financial decisions are being revealed just months, weeks or maybe even days from a general election being called, they take on an even wider significance than might usually be the case.

When the full, final details of Budget 2025 are published on Tuesday, these dual priorities will be firmly in the spotlight, with no one being under any illusions about how important the financial decisions are to both people and parties' futures.