Two factors preventing ministers from budget utopia

Rarely has so much cash coalesced with such levels of political angst.

These are not the days of austerity when the late Brian Lenihan pledged that swingeing cuts would allow the country to turn the proverbial corner.

Instead, there are record tax takes.

However, two complicating factors are preventing ministers from entering budget utopia.

This first is rising energy costs followed closely by soaring grocery bills.

That presents the seemingly strange scenario where the country is getting richer, but households are watching their disposable income shrink.

Obviously, the Budget, which will be unveiled on Tuesday, must leave workers and families feeling that they were helped.

Or as the Taoiseach Micheál Martin put it last night, "the budget has to be about trying to ease the pressure on families and households".

Then there is the second task of applying the fiscal shackles in order to keep the overall increase in Government spending at around 6% next year.

This is a measure that the Cabinet has agreed to.

But it has been a wounding experience for many ministers who found the discussions with the Department of Public Expenditure quite challenging.

The view from that department is that the system needed a circuit breaker as major annual hikes in expenditure had become the norm.

Therefore, the hard line that was taken by Minister Jack Chambers was "tough but necessary".

Some ministers say the process was robust but professional.

For others, it was a different story, and some of those on the Fine Gael side fear that this demonstration of fiscal rectitude will backfire on the Government.

'Bit of a slap in the face to younger generations'

One figure closely observing the week's discussions surmised that the Budget could amount to a subvention of people who are old, own property and already have free travel.

"It is a bit of a slap in the face to younger generations...and will leave a sour taste in the mouth," they said.

At its most bitter points, certain figures in Fine Gael were already laying the anticipated blame at Fianna Fáil’s door, saying, "their pain is our gain".

Those more inclined to embrace the notion of collectivity within the coalition hope that certain key measures around energy will pave the way for a winter that will not descend into one of discontent.

These include the extension of the excise cuts on petrol and diesel to next spring, along with moves to reduce the cost of home heating oil and gas.

Furthermore, there is likely to be a pledge that no further carbon tax increases on both gas and kerosene will occur during the lifetime of the Government.

A €5 weekly increase to the one of four households that receive the Fuel Allowance coupled with a possible €300 one-off payment to this group, is also seen as a significant energy intervention.

Intriguingly, the Taoiseach did not shut the door entirely on a universal energy credit when he spoke to the media last night at his party’s centenary Cairde Fáil dinner.

Micheál Martin would only say the matter had not even been discussed, but equally he could not anticipate what proposals might emerge at the 11th hour.

Changes to the tax bands to keep workers’ incomes in line with inflation are another feature of this year’s budget, something which was not part of last year’s tax package.

Talks on cuts to childcare costs are set to continue today as the coalition weighs up whether greater focus should be given to younger children instead of an across-the-board reduction.

All this as the Tánaiste Simon Harris and his wife Caoimhe welcomed the arrival of a baby girl on Friday.

Chance of getting €100 for cultural activities stalled

For older children, particularly 16 and 17 year olds, the chance of getting €100 to spend on cultural activities has been stalled.

But money has been set aside to still develop the culture card, albeit at a later stage. Outlets where it can be used will first have to be identified.

This is some way off a jocose suggestion from one Fianna Fáil figure who suggested that Jack Chambers might have been tempted to set a prototype culture card alight while in full of Arts and Culture Minister, Patrick O’Donovan.

The research funding for the card might just be enough to keep the peace? Maybe.

The Department of Defence has secured funding to recruit 400 new members of the Defence Forces and 100 new civilian staff.

One measure that still has not gotten the green light is a proposal from the Department of Enterprise to offer a rebate on the sale of draught beer poured from kegs in rural pubs.

But that is small beer compared to the big tests facing Budget 2027.

The measure of its success or failure will be determined by how it is viewed by households worried by rising costs.

The reaction of trade unions advocating for a new public service pay deal and that of April’s fuel protest organisers will also be key.