From Offices to AI: Commercial Real Estate in 2026

Broadcast Retirement Network's Jeffrey Snyder discusses the commercial real estate outlook in 2026 with CBRE's Global Head of Research, Henry Chin, PhD.

Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement Network

Dr. Chin, it's so great to see you. Thanks for joining us this morning.

Henry Chin, PhD., Global Head of Research, CBRE

Good to be here with you, Jeff.

Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement Network

I'm tickled pink because we had your colleague Matthew Howell on several months ago talking about the commercial real estate market. It's great to get to catch up again with you. Let's just talk about where things stand in 2026.

What are some of the macroeconomic factors that have influenced commercial real estate and commercial real estate transactions?

Henry Chin, PhD., Global Head of Research, CBRE

Well, the macroeconomic situation has changed quite dramatically. And then what we are seeing is the three components that we need to pay extra attention to is number one is the GDP, number two is a short-term policy rate, and the third, the most important one is 10-year treasuries. Because those three factors is going to determine our forecasting models for the investment activities.

Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement Network

And have we seen, just to kind of follow up on that, if I may, the capital markets, we've seen some volatility, at least in the stock market, but I would assume that the capital markets are evolving for these commercial real estate transactions that we're seeing a lot of change day-to-day, week-to-week, month-to-month thus far in 2026. And probably, doctor, it's going to continue through the rest of 2026.

Henry Chin, PhD., Global Head of Research, CBRE

It's fascinating you highlight the stock markets. There's so many noises, daily information, definitely going to impact on the sentiment, impact on the stock markets. But when we are thinking about the real estate market, let me give you the fact.

Q1 number, we are seeing the investment activity up by 20% in the US, 2-0. And with such a strong Q1, and also the pipeline, what we are seeing are so strong for the next quarter. As a result, we are expecting to see 2026 transaction volume is going to be up by 18%.

So in the beginning of the year, we are very conservative. We say 16%, but because of resilience, a strong appetite for the market, we upgrade to 18%.

Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement Network

That's good news, especially for investors out there. We're going to talk about that in a few minutes. Are there certain sectors, for example, that have provided greater opportunity, office, retail, malls, et cetera, even AI, energy plants, but are there certain segments or sectors of the marketplace that have looked attractive, have presented opportunity?

Henry Chin, PhD., Global Head of Research, CBRE

It's quite interesting because the US is such a massive country, the liquidity, the diversification, pretty much you can name every single segment. We do have great opportunities, office, retail, industrial, logistics, multifamilies, and data center. So it's all had various opportunities throughout 2026.

But when we are looking, and if you want to be a little bit contrarian, you go off the consensus, I have to say, based on our forecast, office and retail does show the stronger returns projections for 2026 and 2027.

Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement Network

And let's talk about offices for a minute, if we may, Dr. During COVID, I would argue maybe before COVID, a lot of people transitioned to remote work. Now companies seem to have transitioned to a remote or hybrid model. How is that impacting the aforementioned office market?

It seems like it's still attractive, but maybe potential tenants are thinking about the office marketplace in different ways.

Henry Chin, PhD., Global Head of Research, CBRE

It's very funny because I just moved to the US 18 months ago. It's shocking to see that people still talk about hybrid working and remote working because outside the US, it becomes normal. I have to say, even within the US, the conversation about hybrid working and remote working is less relevant.

And when we are looking at the office market, let me give you an example. The Q1, the office rental growth, it's across the US, is well above 2%. It's back to the historical average.

That's number one. Number two, the leasing activities for Q1 is actually the strongest ever since 2021. So therefore, the leasing activity for office is definitely trending up.

But we're also looking at our proprietary data to look at the lease has been signed. I can quite honestly tell you, Jeff, whether you are prime or non-prime segment, the duration of lease terms hasn't changed. So therefore, we are seeing the strong resilience coming back to leases basis.

The fourth component I really want to highlight here is that people are talking about space per person. It's going to decline. It's going to increase over the past few years.

But we also track the space per employee has been stabilized since 2025. So all of those narratives we're coming through, we have to say office has passed its bottom. It's on the way to recover.

Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement Network

And that's good news. I was born and raised here in the United States. I do question how, unlike other parts of the world, we cannot work remotely.

But I guess that's up to the individual employer, and we'll have to see how that gets sorted out. With that being said, Dr., let's talk about some of the technological shifts. Certainly, AI, artificial intelligence, is a big topic that you can't escape.

We're talking about real estate today, but you can't escape anywhere you go. It's about AI. How have some of these technological innovations shifted the way people look at commercial real estate or has it?

Is there more automation? How has it changed operations, for example? It's quite interesting.

Henry Chin, PhD., Global Head of Research, CBRE

If you look at real estate compared to equity markets, real estate is not transparent. So therefore, we really do not have the so-called real-time data. The data we are getting is always lagging behind what has happened.

So what we are seeing is that so many tech-led approach has already happened among landlords, investors, and occupiers. So what we are trying to do is they are trying to capture the building-level data. And for now, by using the technology to help us have better transparencies, better collecting processes, collecting the data in the right system.

So we are in the early stage for that. And then it's very important. After we receive the data, we need to start analyzing the data in order to design a better future for the future of the buildings, future of the space design as well.

I think in the early stages, I'm very confident it's evolving fast. I think real estate industry is rapidly evolving the way we interact with AI.

Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement Network

Yeah, I can't wait till we actually can have a holographic Jeff Snyder working in an office and then Jeff Snyder can just work, you know, be on a boat somewhere. But anyway, that's a whole different conversation. But clearly, technology has found its way into the building and to the operation of these magnificent structures.

Let's talk about indicators that maybe investors should watch in 2026. You hinted, you talked a little bit about this earlier, but what should we be focused on as investors, whether we're individuals or we're large institutional allocators? What should we be focused on?

Henry Chin, PhD., Global Head of Research, CBRE

I think one thing I really want to highlight, real estate is always a function of demand and supply. And the beauty of the current cycle for the U.S. market, we will not have so much supply going forward. So lack of supply will be a feature for real estate market here in the U.S. The demand, there's so many noises, Jeff, about the wall, the AI, all the things that they think potentially going to impact the demand. But I have to tell you, as of now, the demand has showed a strong resilience, which is similar to the GDP stories, what we are seeing in the U.S. But small investors, they really need to pay extra attention on the building they are going to acquiring because going forward, the return is going to largely driven by rental growth. And then the second component is don't go over leverage. So that means just be prudent when the cost of finance, because the cost of finance is going to linger around, you know, 10-year strategy is around about 4 percent.

It's not going to trend down. So therefore, be prudent on your underwriting, particularly on the rental growth assumptions, as well as the cost of finance are super important during this cycle.

Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement Network

Well, doctor, I do. I know we talked about that the outlook is probably an 18 percent general return for 26, just paraphrasing our conversation. But there have to be you mentioned the war, some of the geopolitical things going on.

What are some of the near term risks that we need to be or we investors need to be cognizant of when it comes to investing in real estate?

Henry Chin, PhD., Global Head of Research, CBRE

Well, I keep saying to that investor can be so sensational, be driven by sentiment in the newspapers. I think we go back to the demand and supply. And I do think a smart investor that execute a deal, follow the underwriting, follow the asset management guideline.

I think they are going to have a very, very decent returns in 26 and into 27. 26 is a vintage for the U.S. commercial real estate market.

Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement Network

Yeah, well, I hope you're right because the rising tide lifts all ships. Dr. Chen, we're going to have to leave it here. So great to have you join us.

And look, we look forward to having you back on the program again very soon, sir. Thank you.

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This story was originally published April 27, 2026 at 4:30 AM.