Nvidia stock nears $6 trillion as options bets surge

06 Oct 2026, 19:33 · The Fresno Bee

The Nvidia (NVDA) stock is approaching another major milestone that might matter far beyond shareholders who already own the stock.

Options market pricing data suggests the chipmaker has a high likelihood of reaching a $6 trillion valuation by the end of this month, a level no company has ever reached.

Based on its current share count, Nvidia would need to reach about $248 per share to get there.

For ordinary investors, the significance is bigger than the previous record. Nvidia now carries enough weight in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 that a sharp move in the stock can influence retirement accounts, index funds, and broader market performance.

But perhaps the bigger question is no longer whether Nvidia can keep climbing — it is how much of the future investors are already paying for.

Nvidia’s options market is flashing a signal Wall Street cannot ignore

Nvidia stock is now trading close to a $6 trillion market value, which options traders are treating as an unprecedented milestone as a realistic near-term outcome.

As reported by Seeking Alpha, market-maker pricing reportedly implies roughly a 50% chance Nvidia reaches $6 trillion by the end of October and approximately 67% odds by Dec. 18.

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Based on its current share count, the stock would need to reach about $248 as per Yahoo Finance data. Traders are even assigning roughly a one-in-16 chance to Nvidia reaching $7 trillion by Nov. 20.

I think the broader signal matters more than the round number.

Nvidia already represents about 13% of the Nasdaq and 8% of the S&P 500, meaning another sharp move higher increasingly becomes an index-level event rather than just being an Nvidia story.

The underlying business is also giving bulls ammunition.

Nvidia generated $96.2 billion of quarterly revenue, up 106% year over year, while data center revenue surged 117% to $89 billion.Moreover, it authorized another $150 billion in stock repurchases, as I covered, bringing its remaining authorization to $235 billion, the largest repurchase authorization increase on record.

Still, I would not treat options-derived odds as a forecast. They typically reflect volatility and positioning as much as conviction, particularly with Nvidia testing technical resistance near $238.

KENT NISHIMURA / Getty Images

AI turned Nvidia from a $364 billion chipmaker into a $6 trillion contender

Perhaps the most extraordinary part of Nvidia’s tremendous rise becomes clearer when comparing today’s pricing with where the company stood when generative AI entered the mainstream.

At the end of 2022, shortly after ChatGPT’s launch, Nvidia was worth $364 billion, according to The Motley Fool. That was actually down sharply from about $735 billion at the end of 2021.

By the end of 2023, however, its market capitalization had exploded to $1.22 trillion as per Reuters. It reached roughly $3.29 trillion by the end of 2024, $4.64 trillion by the end of 2025, and about $5.76 trillion this week.

AI fundamentally changed how investors value the company, and the reason is fairly straightforward.

More Nvidia:

Nvidia’s GPUs became “mission-critical” computing infrastructure behind the generative-AI buildout. The company crossed $2 trillion in February 2024, as reported by Reuters, only around nine months after reaching $1 trillion, then took just 96 days to move from $2 trillion to $3 trillion.

Jensen Huang has continued arguing that the opportunity remains much larger. In 2025, he said, “A new industrial revolution has started. The AI race is on.”

He projected $3 trillion to $4 trillion of AI infrastructure spending by 2030.More recently, Nvidia’s latest results strengthened that argument: quarterly sales more than doubled, and Huang said AI had reached an “inflection point.”

To me, that is why $6 trillion is even conceivable. Investors are no longer valuing Nvidia primarily as a semiconductor manufacturer. They are valuing it as infrastructure for an economic transition.

What I think the $6 trillion signal really means for investors

That said, I would be careful about interpreting the 50% options figure as Wall Street saying Nvidia will reach $6 trillion this month.

Options markets price volatility, hedging demand, and positioning in line with expectations, so the figure is better read as evidence that the milestone is well within the market’s plausible range.

What gets my attention is how little additional appreciation Nvidia now needs

From Monday’s nearly $5.76 trillion valuation, reaching $6 trillion requires only about another 4%.That is relatively small for a stock that has repeatedly moved hundreds of billions of dollars after earnings.

But I think size increasingly cuts both ways.

Nvidia’s massive index weight means passive investors now have meaningful exposure, whether they actively chose the stock or not.

Another rally can pull major indexes higher, but disappointment can work in reverse. Nvidia demonstrated that risk dramatically during the 2025 DeepSeek selloff, when roughly $593 billion of market value disappeared in one session.

So I would focus less on whether Nvidia hits $248 this month and more on whether earnings can continue to catch up with an extraordinary valuation.

The $6 trillion milestone would be historic. To me, though, the bigger signal is that markets now consider it almost ordinary enough to price into October.

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This story was originally published October 6, 2026 at 12:33 PM.