Could Las Vegas set new gas price records in the coming weeks?

Las Vegas Valley gasoline prices are in danger of hitting a new all-time high as geopolitical tensions continue around the world.

The average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gas in Southern Nevada on Thursday was $5.36, which is up 1 cent from Wednesday, up 21 cents from last week and up 58 cents in the last month, according to AAA.

Las Vegas Valley’s record average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gas was set on June 16, 2022, at $5.67 per gallon, according to AAA. If the conflict in the Middle East continues, the Strait of Hormuz continues to be closed and Ukraine continues to attack Russian refineries, a new record could be set in the coming weeks, according to Patrick De Hann, lead petroleum analyst for GasBuddy.

Wholesale gas prices were up 21 cents in Southern California Thursday and those prices will start to trickle down into the Las Vegas Valley, since that’s where the majority of the area’s gas comes from the Golden State, De Haan said.

“I think you (Las Vegas) could go up another 20 cents over the next week or two, subject to ongoing developments,” De Haan said. “The Middle East is always so contentious, how things develop and change overnight. For now, you are on a higher trajectory, unfortunately, since you’re fed by the L.A. market… You’re definitely at risk of rising prices over the next week. Like I said, it could go up another 20 cents over the next week or two, and you could be seeing that high in the next few weeks.”

Southern Nevada has already been setting daily record-high average diesel prices, with a new high set on Wednesday, remaining the same on Thursday, at $6.84 per gallon, according to AAA.

Diesel hitting the $7 per gallon mark in the Las Vegas Valley is not out of the question, according to De Haan.

The White House is reportedly mulling the potential to issue a 90-day diesel export ban, which would be intended to potentially lower domestic fuel prices. De Haan said such a ban would likely have the opposite effect and further increase fuel prices.

“The potential for this diesel export ban has been wreaking a little bit of havoc on gasoline prices sending them up,” De Haan said. “The worry is that if the diesel export ban goes through, that refineries are simply going to throttle back and potentially do maintenance. So there is some trickle over there. But if there is no diesel export ban, then that is obviously kind of a moot point. So depending on how this conversation goes surrounding a diesel export ban, could further impact prices beyond the 20 cents I’m referring to, so the prognosis isn’t good.”

What could bring the gas prices down is simple in theory, but not in reality, De Haan said.

“It’s not really magic,” he said. “There needs to be de-escalation and the Strait of Hormuz would need to reopen and/or Ukraine would have to slow down attacks on Russian refineries. That’s more impactful to the price of diesel. But we have these two major geopolitical tensions that are really having an impact on prices and things aren’t going to meaningfully improve until one or two of those start to improve.”