Beef prices stay stubbornly high as cattle shortage hits Texas barbecue

A small-town Texas barbecue joint has pulled brisket from its everyday menu, a sign of how costly beef has become for restaurants and shoppers.

Andrew Soto, owner of Butter’s BBQ in Sinton, near Corpus Christi, told Fox News Digital that beef costs had climbed for about five years and then accelerated over the past eight months to a year. A price increase of nearly $1 per pound last week was the last straw, he said. Butter’s said in a Facebook post that brisket had grown to more than 70% of its grocery costs.

“I made the decision to pull our brisket from the menu completely,” Mr. Soto said.

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His experience reflects a national trend. Retail beef and veal prices in August were 5.9% higher than a year earlier, according to USDA economists, though they slipped 0.6% from July. The agency forecasts beef and veal prices will rise 9.4% for 2026, with a forecast interval of 7.4% to 11.6%. That compares with 2.9% for food overall, 1.2% for pork and 1.0% for poultry.

Supply is the main driver. Federally inspected beef production is about 2% below a year ago and is expected to stay below year-earlier levels through the end of 2026, the agency said. A separate livestock outlook from the department’s Economic Research Service projected 2026 beef production nearly 4% lower than in 2025. It also found July’s pace of fed-cattle slaughter was the lowest in records dating to 1970.

The herd is not rebuilding quickly. The 2026 calf crop is estimated at 32.5 million head, down 1.5%, and the beef cow breeding herd fell 0.7% to 28.45 million as of July 1, the outlook said. Producers are holding back more heifers for breeding, up 2.7%, but the report said retention has not reached the levels seen in past herd expansions.

Georgia rancher Will Harris said years without profits pushed many cattle farmers to liquidate their herds, and that “the numbers are just not here anymore.” Mr. Harris added that higher cattle prices have not yet drawn producers back into the business the way they did in earlier cycles.

Imports are filling part of the gap. The livestock outlook projects 2026 beef imports at about 6.1 billion pounds, up 14%, while exports are forecast to fall 10%. That outlook assumed only the Douglas, Arizona, port would be open to Mexican cattle, with other crossings treated as closed until officials set a timeline.

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Mexican cattle imports have since resumed in stages after closures over New World screwworm. USDA reopened the Douglas port on Aug. 24. The Santa Teresa, New Mexico, crossing followed on Sept. 24 after a 16-month closure, with more than 400 head crossing on the first day. The port typically handles about 500,000 head a year, and officials said they expect volumes to rise gradually. Under USDA’s protocol, every animal is inspected for screwworm.

The ranchers are capturing more of each retail dollar. Cattle producers now receive more than half of the retail beef dollar, up from about 37% in 2021, according to ERS data presented at USDA’s Outlook Forum in February.

There are early signs of cooling upstream. Farm-level cattle prices fell 6.4% from July to August and were 3.9% below a year earlier, the first year-over-year decline of 2026. Wholesale beef fell 3.0% in August but remained 3.1% above a year ago. USDA says retail prices typically lag movements at the farm and wholesale levels, so any relief could reach shoppers only gradually, if the declines hold. The agency also notes that producer prices are far more volatile than retail prices. Its forecasts, which rest on statistical models fitted to recent trends, still call for 2026 increases of 7.1% for farm-level cattle and 8.5% for wholesale beef. Beef and veal prices are projected to rise another 4.7% in 2027, according to Ag Bull’s summary of the outlook.

Other Texas operators describe similar pressure. David Page, owner of Hoegemeyer’s Barbeque Barn in the Corpus Christi area, told KIII that beef prices have risen about 40% over the past two years. William Paul Sissamis, owner of Silverado Smokehouse, said he would rather temporarily drop beef ribs than raise prices. Restaurant owners also cited high diesel costs, the station reported.

Butter’s is turning to pork, which has seen far smaller price increases. Mr. Soto said the restaurant is testing beef cheek as a brisket alternative and plans an online pre-order system for brisket, so he is not guessing how much a small-town crowd will buy.

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