Hormuz traffic nears prewar levels as Iran war simmers
by Vaughn Cockayne · The Washington TimesCommercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz increased dramatically in September, according to maritime tracking firms on Tuesday, inching closer to prewar levels as some speculate that Iran is losing leverage against the U.S. in the seven-month-long war.
An average of 10 million barrels of oil have passed through the strait daily, according to data from maritime tracking agency Kpler.
Approximately 17 to 20 million barrels traveled through the strait daily before the war began in February and Iran closed the waterway.
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It’s a marked improvement in traffic levels during the height of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. Commercial traffic in the strait hit record lows in August, with only a single vessel making it through safely on certain days.
Since vessels traveling through the waterway still run the risk of being attacked by Iranian drones or missiles, most reportedly travel under cover of darkness through Omani waters and often turn their transponders off before entering the strait.
That makes it difficult to get an accurate number from maritime tracking firms, which have all presented diverging figures this week on September daily averages. Still, most point to a noticeable uptick in traffic.
The increase could be attributed to the efforts of U.S. Central Command to protect commercial ships as they move through the strait. CENTCOM has also maintained a blockade of Iran’s ports since July in an attempt to cut off Tehran’s oil exports.
President Trump and other administration officials have for months asserted that the U.S. controls Hormuz and that ships should feel safe to move through the waterway. But as traffic levels remain well below prewar levels, it’s clear his rhetoric has not totally convinced insurance and shipping companies.
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Additionally, the increase in traffic has not translated to lower gas prices for Americans or lower international oil prices. Brent crude, the international benchmark for crude oil, stood at $102 a barrel on Tuesday, down from this week’s high of $108 but far above the $89 price from the same time last month.
The U.S. national average for a gallon of regular gasoline is $4.46, according to AAA data.
Iran has also indicated that it’s prepared to increase its attacks on energy infrastructure and U.S. military assets in the Middle East, which could throw oil prices into further disarray and tighten traffic in Hormuz.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s Parliament speaker, said Tuesday that regional oil infrastructure would not be spared if the U.S. fails to agree to Iranian demands to end its blockade and remove military assets from the region.
“If we do not sell oil in a region, no one will sell oil there, and if our security is not guaranteed, no infrastructure will be safe,” Mr. Ghalibaf said.
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Iran has shown a capacity to target oil infrastructure, including plants in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
Tehran’s allies in eastern Iraq and Yemen have also dealt significant damage to Saudi oil facilities in recent weeks, with the country’s major East-West pipeline having to pause operations after a drone attack from an Iran-aligned Shiite militia.
Mr. Ghalibaf’s comments come as Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, held talks with Qatari mediators in New York City this week in hopes of brokering a ceasefire agreement and reopening Hormuz.
Mr. Trump, however, has been insistent that any deal with Iran that does not include a full elimination of Tehran’s nuclear ambitions is a nonstarter.
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On Tuesday, the president implied that he was in no rush to see a diplomatic end to the conflict, adding that America’s economic pressure campaign targeting Iran’s exports and banking sector will facilitate Tehran’s collapse.
“That’ll be over with very soon,” Mr. Trump said. “They will not have a nuclear weapon, and oil prices are going to be tumbling down just like they were before I had to make that little excursion to the Islamic republic of Iran.”
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Vaughn Cockayne
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