African terror groups expand beyond Sahel as death toll nears 24,000

LONDON — Terrorism is skyrocketing across the troubled African continent, with almost 24,000 deaths in 2025 blamed on terror-related violence —a 24% increase over the previous year, according to recently released statistics.

According to Pentagon-backed research from the Africa Center for Strategic Studies released in April, there were 23,968 terrorism-related fatalities across Africa in 2025, with almost every region seeing a marked increase.

The Sahel — a semi-arid belt between the Sahara Desert and the continent’s savanna — continues to be the epicenter of terrorist violence.

This group of landlocked countries on the edge of the Sahara, including Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, remains the focal point for militant activity and an area where United States Africa Command has not engaged in — or at least has not publicly acknowledged engaging in — sustained combat operations.

The study reported 9,826 fatalities in the Sahel linked to militants in 2025.

Another analysis from the Council on Foreign Relations found that 51% of global terrorism-related deaths occurred in the Sahel last year.

“Violence has increased across the Sahel because of governments’ insistence that the only solution is a military solution,” said Auguste Denise Barry, a former Burkinabe army colonel and cabinet minister responsible for security.

Burkina Faso continues to experience the highest levels of violence — accounting for 50% of all militant Islamist-linked fatalities in the region.

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“The problem in Burkina Faso is actually more solvable than elsewhere in the Sahel because there are fewer political cleavages that overlap with ethnic divisions, making a peaceful solution more possible if the government chooses dialogue,” Mr. Barry told The Washington Times.

Local militia groups in Burkina Faso known as the VDP are often strikingly diverse, with Muslims, animists and Christians serving side by side. In many units, fighters coordinate informally to accommodate one another’s prayer and religious practices.

While some analysts point to governance failures, others blame the rise in violence on larger, more dynamic terrorist groups.

Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimeen — known as JNIM — is a Salafi-jihadist coalition that has grown rapidly since its founding in 2017, thanks in part to its control of lucrative trans-Saharan criminal trade routes.

“Violence has been largely driven by the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimeen coalition, which has been linked to 78% of the fatalities in the region (and 2,502 out of the 3,039 reported events) over the past year,” the Africa Center for Strategic Studies wrote.

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The group’s presence is expanding as well. The militants claimed responsibility for an attack in Nigeria last year and recently named an “emir,” or regional leader, for Benin.

The small country has one of Africa’s most peaceful histories and terrorist activity there has historically been limited.

But in March, JNIM claimed responsibility for an attack on a village in northern Benin near the Niger border that killed 15 soldiers.

Analysts have long warned that instability in the Sahel could spread to coastal West African states. The recent attacks in Benin and Nigeria suggest that scenario may be coming to fruition.

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JNIM also claimed responsibility for its first Nigeria attack in November.

On Christmas Day, U.S. strikes in Nigeria targeted terrorist groups there. The operation highlighted growing concern in Washington about extremist networks expanding into West Africa’s most populous nation.

U.S. President Trump described the operation as “a powerful and deadly strike against ISIS terrorist scum.”

The Lake Chad Basin with Nigeria as its epicenter saw a 28% increase in fatalities from the previous year, largely driven by attacks from Boko Haram and ISIS West Africa in northeast Nigeria.

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“What is driving terrorism in this region is youth unemployment and failure of governance to appeal broadly,” said Mutaru Mumuni Muqthar, executive director of the West Africa Center for Counter Extremism in Accra, Ghana.

“In Nigeria there is a different dynamic at play,” Mr. Muqthar said, “The Nigerian government has been very successful in recent years at containing the Boko Haram threat, but new threats have emerged, and the government has been slow to build up the capacity and shift resources to emerging threats with links to the Sahel for example.”

With limited resources, the Trump administration has made Somalia the focus of its counterterrorism operations on the continent. U.S. special forces came under indirect fire there last year, and Africa Command announced multiple airstrikes, including operations conducted on at least ten separate days in April alone.

“The 8,813 deaths linked to al-Shabab and the Islamic State (ISIS) over the past year represent a 93 percent increase from the previous year,” the ISS report said.

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U.S. efforts have also involved support for local partners. The semi-autonomous Puntland region’s Operation Hilaac (“Lightning”) targeted remote mountainous areas where ISIS-Somalia has established a foothold.

By year’s end, ISIS-Somalia was on the run, retreating in the face of Somalian forces backed by U.S. air support. The report concluded the operation “has significantly degraded the strength and capabilities of ISIL-Somalia over the course of 2025.”

Al-Shabab, a separate terrorist group, revived its fortunes in 2025. Al Shabab forces seized a series of towns and villages in central Somalia during February and March of last year. The offensive pushed to within 50 kilometers of Mogadishu, the Somali capital. U.S. support has helped Somali forces begin to turn the tide.

Somalia’s struggle against ISIS-Somalia and al-Shabab threatens the long-term security of the Horn of Africa and the critical Bab el-Mandeb waterway.

It is one of the few global theaters where Russian and American security interests appear to align.

Russia has developed nascent security ties in the region and has supported United Nations-supported counter-terrorism efforts.

Russia’s U.N. ambassador, Vasily Nebenzya, praised international efforts “curbing extremist activities in the Horn of Africa and protecting civilians from the threat posed by al-Shabab” during a December debate on Somalia.

Russia has also developed a direct security relationship with Somalia, nominally focusing on counter-terrorism.

For policy makers in Europe and Washington, the trend line is disturbing.

The data underscores a sobering reality: terrorism in Africa is accelerating faster than the international response. As extremist networks exploit porous borders and weak institutions, the window for containment is narrowing.

The expansion of terrorist groups like JNIM and ISIS affiliates signals a shift that will affect migration flows, trade routes and security concerns that are not just African, but global.