Dutch home prices won't rise further this year due to higher supply: ING

Home prices are not expected to rise further for the remainder of this year, ING said in a report on the housing market. Home price development in the big cities is expected to lag behind the national average, and prices could even briefly drop slightly, according to the bank’s market experts. After years of growth, it is the first time in a long time that a bank expects the housing market to cease further growth.

The main reason is the increasing supply of housing, particularly rental properties that investors are selling into the owner-occupied market. Private investors are disposing of these homes because stricter regulations and high taxes make renting them out barely profitable anymore. At the same time, slightly higher mortgage interest rates and a “more cautious sentiment” are slightly depressing demand.

Due to price increases at the start of the year, ING expects 2026’s home price increase to amount to approximately 1.5 percent. Home prices will also rise modestly next year, by around 2 percent.

Many investors are putting their rental properties up for sale, particularly in and around the large cities and in student cities. This is expected to remain the case for the rest of the year, after which the sale of rental homes will gradually decline next year. Additionally, there will be extra supply as more new-build buyers move into their completed homes and put their existing homes up for sale.

ING forecasts that the number of sales of existing homes will reach 240,000 this year, comparable to 2025. “The number is expected to remain just below the record level of 2017, when there were 242,000 transactions,” the bank said.

ABN Amro warned earlier this week that the amendments to the Affordable Rent Act announced by Housing Minister Elanor Boekholt-O’Sullivan offer an insufficient solution to prevent the exodus of investors. “As long as the tax treatment in Box 3 remains unchanged, private landlords will continue to withdraw from the market, and the supply of affordable rental homes will shrink further. Ultimately, the tenant pays the price,” the bank said.