ABN Amro also expects Dutch housing market to cool more sharply in 2027

ABN Amro expects the Dutch housing market to cool more significantly next year than it previously anticipated. In its latest housing market monitor, the bank points to higher mortgage rates as the main reason for the expected slowdown, echoing a similar forecast from ING.

ABN Amro has raised its forecast for house price growth this year from 3 percent to 3.8 percent, mainly because prices rose more than expected during the first half of the year. The bank expects prices to remain broadly stable or edge down slightly during the rest of the year.

ABN Amro has cut its forecast for house price growth in 2027 from 4 percent to 2.5 percent. The bank's researchers now expect the European Central Bank to raise interest rates twice more, which would put further pressure on the housing market. However, ABN Amro does not currently foresee a decline in house prices.

Economists have also lowered their forecast for home sales in 2027, now predicting that the number of transactions will fall by 5.5 percent, compared with the previously expected 4 percent decline.

House prices are developing very differently across the Netherlands. The increase is considerably smaller in the Randstad than elsewhere, with Groningen, Drenthe and Gelderland recording some of the strongest growth. Amsterdam saw prices rise by just 0.8 percent year-on-year in the second quarter, compared with almost 8 percent in Groningen. Across the country, house prices increased by an average of 4.2 percent.

ABN Amro also says the measures unveiled by the government on Prinsjesdag are unlikely to significantly affect the Dutch housing market.

ING also lowered some of its housing market forecasts in a report published earlier this week. However, the bank does not expect Dutch house prices to start declining in the near future.