5 Big Awards-Season Story Lines to Follow During the New York Film Festival

The 64th New York Film Festival kicks off on Friday with the North American premiere of James Gray’s Paper Tiger. It’s the third time that the native of Flushing, Queens, who has set almost all of his films somewhere within the five boroughs, will have a movie at NYFF, following The Lost City of Z in 2016 (ironically one of his two non–New York films) and Armageddon Time in 2022. Paper Tiger picked up a bit of awards buzz when it had its world premiere at Cannes, particularly for stars Adam Driver and Scarlett Johansson. Now, in showing the film to NYFF audiences, Gray — and Neon, which acquired the film this past spring — are hoping that the last big film festival of the fall can provide a boost as we head into awards season.

Paper Tiger isn’t the only film with something at stake as NYFF kicks off. Even the short films have some intrigue this year, featuring brief works by the likes of Charlotte Wells (Aftersun), Jia Zhangke (Caught by the Tides), Kleber Mendonça Filho (The Secret Agent), and Oscar winner Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest). Here’s everything else we’ve got an eye on at NYFF.

(For anyone planning to join the Movies Fantasy League before scoring starts next weekend, the last-minute buzz out of NYFF could be the final data points you need to make your selections.)

Will Nathan Fielder (and Elizabeth Holmes) wrap another festival around their finger?

When Telluride surprise-debuted You Can See Everything a few weeks ago, the raves were abundant; meanwhile, the curiosity level among the rest of us down at sea level was off the charts. Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s quasi-documentary following Theranos fraudster Elizabeth Holmes in the weeks before she leaves for prison has become the talk of festival season.

Consequently, it’s hard to imagine the hype on this movie getting any higher. Some Oscar pundits are even putting it in their Best Picture predictions. (It would be the first documentary ever nominated in that category.) The question now is whether the New York audiences will prove harder to please — though even if NYFF reactions are more muted than those in Telluride, the film will likely retain some mystique headed into its mid-October theatrical debut. 

➼ You Can See Everything is out October 16. It costs $3 in the MFL.

Can Artificial Out-Sorkin Sorkin?

Luca Guadagnino’s latest film, Artificial — about controversial OpenAI CEO Sam Altman — was a late addition to the NYFF lineup following speculation that it would be the festival’s “secret screening” this year. Last year, NYFF surprised audiences by showing Marty Supreme without any advance notice, and after that screening went over like gangbusters, Marty took off on a trajectory toward nine Oscar nominations. That’s certainly a path Guadagnino and Neon would love for Artificial.

After initially seeming like it might sit out awards season, an Artificial premiere in New York will at least give Guadagnino’s film the jump on fall’s other tech-wary dramatic feature: Aaron Sorkin’s The Social Reckoning. In 2010, David Fincher premiered The Social Network as the opening night film at NYFF en route to an awards run that, among other things, won Sorkin an Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay. But with The Social Reckoning not playing festivals ahead of its October 9 premiere and a trailer that looked alarmingly chintzy, the buzz is somewhat lacking for that movie. Neon’s confidence to drop Artificial into the NYFF lineup (plus a trailer that plays better) has expectations trending upward.

➼ Artificial is out December 25. It costs $15.

Can Godzilla become the darling of the Upper West Side?

The last time I recall Godzilla taking Manhattan, Roland Emmerich and Matthew Broderick were involved, and nobody liked it very much. Now, director Takashi Yamazaki’s Godzilla Minus Zero will premiere as the Gala film of the Spotlight section. Minus Zero is the much-anticipated sequel to Godzilla Minus One, the surprise hit from 2023 that earned more acclaim in the United States than any other Godzilla film in a generation. Then it won an Academy Award for its visual effects as the first ever Godzilla film to even be nominated for an Oscar.

So who’s to say that the sequel can’t improve upon that performance? A high-profile world premiere shows that distributor GKIDS has a ton of confidence in the film. Considering the Oscars have become rather fond of nominating at least one action blockbuster every year, why couldn’t we get our first Godzilla movie nominated for Best Picture? Okay, okay, I’m getting ahead of myself: The movie needs to open to strong reviews and word of mouth. It’ll get its chance when it premieres on Saturday, September 26. 

➼ Godzilla Minus Zero is out November 6. It costs $15.

Ava DuVernay’s closing-night film will enter a crowded documentary space

In 2016, Ava DuVernay’s documentary film 13th — an indictment of the mass-incarceration system in America — opened NYFF. It went on to win a host of awards and get nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the Oscars. This year, DuVernay is bringing that film’s sequel to close the festival. 14th will be an examination of the 14th Amendment, which relates to birthright citizenship — an important and embattled part of America’s constitutional foundation. Given DuVernay’s track record, the film is bound to be eye-opening and galvanizing. But if it hopes to repeat its predecessor’s route to an Oscar nomination, it will have to navigate a crowded field.

Just from the NYFF lineup alone, 14th will join a conversation that includes the aforementioned Nathan Fielder provocation You Can See Everything; Julia Loktev’s My Undesirable Friends: Part II – Exile (Part I won a bunch of critics’ prizes); the hot-button film Naza, which gets Israeli officials to open up about their actions in Gaza; and One Upon a Time in Harlem, which revisits the 1972 gathering of the legends of the Harlem Renaissance.

➼ 14th is out December 4. It costs $2.
➼ My Undesirable Friends: Part II – Exile is out October 9. It costs $2.
➼ NAZA is out October 9. It costs $5.
➼ Once Upon a Time in Harlem is out October 16. It costs $1.

Will the needle move for anyone in this wide-open Best Actress race?

After premiering in Telluride and then playing to raucous audiences in Toronto, Julianne Moore’s performance in The Debut has shot to the top of nearly everybody’s Oscar predictions for Best Actress. I wouldn’t expect Moore to cool off any when The Debut plays NYFF, but the Gothamites’ reaction could help determine just how well The Debut will play as a whole this season.

Meanwhile, the rest of the Best Actress race remains pretty wide open — and there will be plenty of contenders with films playing New York. Sandra Hüller has two of them: Paweł Pawlikowski’s Fatherland (which won Best Director at Cannes) and Markus Schleinzer’s Rose (for which Hüller won the Best Actress prize at the Berlin Film Festival). Rosalind Eleazar’s name continues to be floated around as a Best Actress contender for Chris Rock’s Misty Green — our Alison Willmore calls the film an outstanding showcase for her talents, even if the film itself doesn’t have much to say.

Fjord, the Palme d’Or winner at Cannes, will play NYFF, bringing lead actress Renate Reinsve to the festival for the third time after The Worst Person in the World and Sentimental Value. The Best Actress winners at Cannes, All of a Sudden co-stars Virginie Efira and Tao Okamoto, will continue their tour through the festivals. And if Mike Leigh’s Tender Loving Care can find some traction, Marion Bailey could pick up some Best Actress momentum as well.

➼ The Debut is out December 11. It costs $20.
➼ Fatherland is out October 23. It costs $10.
➼ Rose is out December 11. It costs $5.
➼ Misty Green is out October 9. It costs $8.
➼ Fjord is out October 9. It costs $20.
➼ All of a Sudden is out November 25. It costs $20.
➼ Tender Loving Care is out December 4. It costs $5.