Can Brad Pitt and a Cute Dog Salvage Paramount’s Brutal Year at the Box Office?

While Paramount CEO David Ellison enjoys his WarnerMount merger win, the studio's 2026 box office is not a pretty picture. Enter "Heart of the Beast."

Can Brad Pitt save Paramount’s year? This weekend David Ayer’s well-reviewed survival thriller “Heart of the Beast” — a love story about a man and his dog — is expected to play well between the coasts and build strong word-of-mouth. But given its $82 million budget and intense competition at the weekend box office, the movie could open to just $16 million. It will need an A Cinemascore and strong word-of-mouth to get where it needs to go.

All eyes are on Paramount as the studio prepares for the upcoming $111 billion merger with Warner Bros. Pending approval of a Consent Decree with the 12 States Attorneys General who filed an antitrust suit against the merger, Paramount CEO David Ellison has promised to deliver a minimum of 30 movies a year between the two studios in the first two years, then 32 in the next three.

Looking at the fine print, at least 20 of the annual film slate have to be wide releases on 2,000 screens or more. And 20 percent must have a production or acquisition budget of at least $50 million and reach 3,000 screens. The studio is committed to a 45-day theatrical window and 90-day SVOD holdback. Re-releases don’t count.

“Only half the films must actually be produced or jointly produced by Paramount-Warner,” wrote Celluloid Junkie’s J. Sperling Reich on Facebook. “The rest can include films the company merely distributes or acquires, and the decree’s definition of an ‘Independent Film’ is unusually generous. There is also no $10 million marketing minimum — just a requirement that marketing be consistent with similar films and release patterns. That’s why I don’t think ’30 films’ should be read as ‘Paramount and Warner will continue producing 30 studio movies between them.’ The decree guarantees a theatrical pipeline. It does not guarantee preservation of the two independent production pipelines that existed before the merger.”

For the moment, given the current production schedules for both studios, delivering the quota in the first year shouldn’t be an issue. But the summer of 2026 saw both studios fall behind A24 in market share for the summer. A24 grossed $237 million at the domestic box office against $192 million for Paramount and $165 million for Warner Bros. That studio scored woeful numbers at the 2026 box office, according to Box Office Pro, down 76 percent year to date after week 37, a pitiful performance after last year’s blockbusters “Sinners,” “Weapons,” “Minecraft: The Movie,” and Oscar-lost-leader “One Battle After Another.” And the $125 million art film “Digger,” starring character actor Tom Cruise, isn’t going to help the studio dig out of that hole.

Paramount did slightly less poorly in 2026 than 2025, up about 4 percent — but we are talking about the seventh-ranked studio with 5 percent market share. Looking at 2026 so far, about one year in to David Ellison’s Skydance takeover of Paramount, the studio is releasing some 15 movies theatrically, most of them B movies or programmers. (Most of these deals were closed before Ellison acquired the studio.) How are they doing?

So far three sequels made some money: “Scream 7,” “Scary Movie,” and “Paw Patrol: The Dino Movie,” while “Jackass: Best and Last” might squeeze out some ancillary income. Most of the releases are service distribution deals. Flops include horror flicks “Primate” and “Passenger.”

January 9: Nature horror thriller “Primate,” a co-production with 18hz Productions. Budget: $24 million. Worldwide gross: $41 million. A flop.

February 27: “Scream 7,” produced by Spyglass Media Group, Project X Entertainment, Outerbanks Entertainment and Radio Silence Productions. No distribution in Scandinavia, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria and Israel. Budget: $45 million. Worldwide gross: $213.8 million. A hit. But how big a slice went to Paramount?

May 8: “Billie Eilish – Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour (Live in 3D),” produced by Darkroom Records, Interscope Films and Lightstorm Earth. Limited event distribution only. Service fee.

May 20: “Jack Ryan: Ghost War,” a co-production with Amazon MGM Studios, Sunday Night Productions and Big Indie Pictures, distributed by Amazon Prime Video. Straight to streaming.

May 22: “Passenger,” a co-production with 18hz Productions and Coin Operated. Budget: $15 million. Worldwide gross: $31 million. Flop.

June 5: “Savage House,” produced by Record Player Films and Deluge Pictures. Foreign distribution only: $588,000. No domestic release.

June 5: “Scary Movie,” produced by Miramax (Paramount owns a 49 percent stake) and Wayans Bros. Entertainment. Budget: $30 million. Worldwide gross: $231 million. Paramount grabs a distribution fee and recovers its marketing and P&A costs from ticket sales before sharing the remaining profits with Miramax. Hit.

June 26: “Jackass: Best and Last,” co-production with MTV Entertainment Studios and Dickhouse Productions. Budget: $10 million. Worldwide gross: $27 million. Recouper.

July 25: “Avatar Aang: The Last Airbender,” co-production with Nickelodeon Movies and Avatar Studios; distributed by Paramount+.

August 14: “Paw Patrol: The Dino Movie,” distribution outside Canada with Paramount Animation and Nickelodeon Movies only; produced by Spin Master Entertainment. Budget: $40 million. Worldwide gross: $147 million. Hit.

August 26: “Tad and the Magic Lamp” Spanish-language film; produced by Telecinco Cinema, Lightbox Animation Studios, Ikiru Films, Anangu Grup and La Tadeopelícula AIE. Distribution only. Service fee.

September 4: “By Any Means,” produced by Hammerstone Studios, Thunder Road, Freedom Principle, North.Five.Six, Bright White Light, Closest to the Hole Productions and Leverage Entertainment. U.S. distribution only. Service fee.

Upcoming:
September 25: Survival thriller “Heart of the Beast,” starring Brad Pitt, co-production with Temple Hill Entertainment, Crave Films and Wild Chickens Productions.

October 16: Actioner “Street Fighter,” starring Jason Momoa, produced by Legendary Pictures and Capcom. Distribution outside China only.

November 13: Holiday movie “Ebenezer,” starring Johnny Depp, co-production with Green Bean Pictures.

November 25: “Focker-in-Law,” co-production with Universal Pictures, Tribeca Enterprises, Red Hour Productions and Particular Pictures, international distribution only.

December 23: “The Angry Birds Movie 3,” produced by Rovio Entertainment, Sega Sammy Group, Prime Focus Studios, One Cool Films, Flywheel Media and Dentsu. Distribution only.

December 25: $30 million sports movie “Mr. Irrelevant,” starring David Corenswet, a co-production with Skydance Sports, Blackjack Films and Megamix.

Looking at this lineup, you can see that the studio has had leeway to decide how to release each movie, whether in theaters or streaming. In order to meet these new requirements, the distributor may need to throw more movies of lower quality into theaters. Not that this 2026 list marks a high bar to meet. And if Ellison has any hope of making this deal pay off, Paramount and Warner Bros. need to turn things around — fast.