Will the DGA Film Nominees Match the Oscars?

"One Battle After Another," "Sinners," and "Hamnet" will repeat at the Oscars. But the Academy Directors branch leans foreign.

The Directors Guild of America’s (DGA) five nominees for Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Theatrical Feature Film do not always line up with the Oscars. Over the years, Ben Affleck (“Argo”), Joseph Kosinski (“Top Gun: Maverick”), Ron Howard (“Apollo 13”), and Steven Spielberg (“The Color Purple”) did not follow up DGA nominations with Oscar nods.

Last year, DGA nominee Edward Berger (“Conclave”) failed to land a directing Oscar nomination. Basically, the DGA has always been more mainstream (with assistant directors and production managers voting) than the Academy, especially the foreign-leaning Directors Branch, which nominated Coralie Fargeat (“The Substance”) instead.

This year, while all the movies from the five DGA nominees will wind up in the Best Picture race, including frontrunner Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another,” Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners,” Guillermo del Toro’s “Frankenstein,” Josh Safdie’s “Marty Supreme,” and Chloé Zhao’s “Hamnet,” the directors don’t usually line up exactly.

It’s possible that a popular international filmmaker in the Best Picture race like Jafar Panahi (“It Was Just an Accident”) or Joachim Trier (“Sentimental Value”) will squeeze in over American awards newcomer Josh Safdie (“Marty Supreme”).

But Anderson, Coogler, and Oscar-winner Zhao (“Nomadland”) should repeat with directing Oscar slots; PTA will win the Oscar handily: He has racked up 11 Oscar nominations in various categories over the years with no wins.

Netflix’s “Frankenstein” is showing strength, with four Critics Choice Awards, including Supporting Actor Jacob Elordi, tied with “Sinners.” Del Toro is beloved and has won three Oscars, for directing and producing “The Shape of Water,” and Best Animated Feature winner “Pinocchio.” “Frankenstein,” an elevated horror film, will win many craft Oscars, and Del Toro should land his spot.

As for the Michael Apted award for first-time theatrical film, Hasan Hasadi gets a boost in the International Feature Film race for his shortlisted Iraq submission “The President’s Cake” (Sony Pictures Classics), the only foreign-language film represented here. The British are happy that Harry Lighton (“Pillion”) landed a nod, while Americans Charlie Polinger (“The Plague”), Alex Russell (“Lurker”), and Eva Victor (“Sorry, Baby”) can all add “DGA nominee” to their advertising and resumes.