Filipinos' New Year hope drops to 16-year low at 89% — SWS

MANILA, Philippines — Nearly nine in 10 Filipinos will enter 2026 with hope rather than fear, but this marks the lowest level of optimism in 16 years, according to a Social Weather Stations survey released Friday, December 31. 

The SWS survey conducted from November 24 to 30 found 89% of adult Filipinos entering the New Year with hope, down one percentage point from 90% in 2024 and seven points from 96% in 2023.

This matches the 89% recorded in 2009 — the lowest in 16 years.

Meanwhile, 11% said they will enter the New Year with fear, up from 10% in 2024 and just 3% in 2023. This is the highest level of fear expressed for the new year since 2009.

Sharp decline from 2023 peak

The drop is a sharp reversal from recent years. From 2010 to 2024, New Year hope consistently stayed in the 90s. The figure stood at 96% in 2023 before falling to 90% in 2024 and now 89%.

SWS first measured New Year hope at 87% in 2000.

The metric has fallen into the 80s only seven times: in 2000, 2001, 2004, 2005, 2009 and now 2025.

Christmas expectations linked to New Year outlook

Filipinos who expected a happy Christmas were more likely to enter the New Year with hope. 

Among those anticipating a happy Christmas, 92% reported feeling hopeful about 2026, compared to 83% among those expecting neither a happy nor sad Christmas and 79% among those expecting a sad Christmas.

A separate SWS survey released December 24 found 68% of Filipinos expecting a happy Christmas, up from 65% in 2024.

By area, hope for the coming year was highest in Balance Luzon at 92%, followed by Metro Manila at 90%, the Visayas at 85% and Mindanao at 84%.

Compared with the end of 2024, optimism fell by 5 points in Mindanao and 2 points in the Visayas. It was unchanged in Balance Luzon and barely moved in Metro Manila, SWS said.

College graduates and those with some senior high school education showed the highest optimism at 91% and 93%, respectively. Non-elementary graduates recorded the lowest at 81%.

Hope fell most sharply among college graduates, down 5 points from 96% in 2024, and elementary graduates, down 3 points from 89%. 

The nationwide survey interviewed 1,200 adults face-to-face, with a margin of error of ±3% for national percentages and ±6% for each region. 

The survey asked respondents in Filipino: "Ang darating na taon ba ay inyong sasalubungin nang may pag-asa o may pangamba?" (Is it with hopes or with fears that you enter the coming year?)