3 Reasons Why Avatar: Fire And Ash Could Become The First Avatar Film To Miss The $2 Billion Mark
Despite massive expectations, subtle warning signs suggest Avatar: Fire and Ash could break the franchise’s historic $2 billion streak.
by Pranshu Awasthi · KoimoiJames Cameron’s Avatar: Fire and Ash, the highly anticipated third installment in the iconic sci-fi film series, has finally hit the big screen. Most moviegoers are already aware of the franchise’s box-office legacy. Avatar (2009) remains the highest-grossing film of all time worldwide, while its sequel, Avatar: The Way of Water (2022), currently ranks as the third highest-grossing movie ever. With such an unprecedented track record, expectations are sky-high for Fire and Ash to replicate the success of its predecessors.
The global box-office race this year is presently led by the Chinese animated film Ne Zha 2 ($1.902 billion), followed by Disney’s Zootopia 2 ($1.145 billion) and Lilo & Stitch ($1.038 billion). Among these billion-dollar earners of 2025, Avatar: Fire and Ash is expected to surpass the latter two titles comfortably. However, surpassing the benchmark set by the earlier Avatar films presents a more complex challenge.
While there’s no denying the anticipation surrounding James Cameron’s latest directorial venture, a few early indicators need a closer inspection. As the film begins its theatrical run, the big question is: Could Avatar: Fire and Ash become the first entry in the franchise to fall short of the $2 billion global milestone? Here’s why that possibility is being quietly discussed.
Weaker Critical Reception Than Previous Avatar Films
While Avatar: Fire and Ash appears to have all the ingredients of a big blockbuster, its Rotten Tomatoes critics’ score might have prompted discussions among some fans and industry observers. The film currently holds a 69% critics’ score on Rotten Tomatoes at the time of writing. In comparison, the first Avatar movie earned an 81% critics’ score, while Avatar: The Way of Water stands at 76%. This places Fire and Ash 12% below the first film and 7% behind the second.
However, the Tomatometer score may improve over time as the film spends more time in theaters. While a lower critics’ score does not necessarily spell trouble for a franchise of this scale, particularly one with a loyal fan base, it can perhaps influence momentum, especially in the crucial weeks following the release. Whether this comparatively softer critical response has any meaningful impact on Fire and Ash’s long-term box-office trajectory remains to be seen.
Lower Opening Projection Compared To The Way Of Water
Early box-office projections suggest that Avatar: Fire and Ash may begin its theatrical run on a comparatively softer note than its immediate predecessor. According to an earlier report by Deadline, the third installment is projected to gross between $340 million and $380 million worldwide in the opening weekend.
For context, Avatar: The Way of Water debuted to a notably higher global opening of $444 million. This implies a potential decline of approximately 14% to 24% for Fire and Ash. While the Avatar franchise is well-known for its sustained theatrical runs, a lower starting point could place added pressure on Fire and Ash to maintain strong audience turnout over the following weeks. If these projections hold, crossing the $2 billion benchmark may require consistent momentum across multiple markets.
Diminishing Novelty Of The Avatar Experience
When Avatar debuted in 2009, it redefined the theatrical experience with its groundbreaking visuals and immersive 3D technology. Over time, however, that novelty factor may have somewhat diminished as audiences have grown used to experiencing large-scale visual spectacles. As a result, the challenge for Fire and Ash lies in delivering an experience that feels genuinely fresh. How audiences ultimately respond to this latest return to Pandora will become clear as the film’s theatrical run unfolds.
What’s Avatar: Fire And Ash All About
Avatar: Fire and Ash continues the journey of Marine turned Na’vi leader Jake Sully (Sam Worthington), Na’vi warrior Neytiri (Zoe Saldana), and the Sully family as they grapple with grief after the death of Neteyam. They encounter a hostile Na’vi clan, the Ash People, led by the fiery tribe leader, Varang.
Here’s the official trailer of Avatar: Fire and Ash:
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