40 People Took 1% Odds on Kalshi on a Rare Oscars Tie for Live Action Short Film

On Kalshi, the biggest upset of Oscar night came in the short film category, where a tie was given a 1% of chance of paying off.

But then “The Singers” and “Two People Exchanging Saliva” shared in the live action short film award, marking just the seventh tie in Oscars history.

About 40 people did buy the “tie” contract in that category, with an average trade of $59 — for a total volume of $2,365. Anyone who had that contract saw their investment pay off 100-to-1. And anyone who bought contracts for any of the actual nominees lost out.

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“A tie was unlikely, but some people did trade on it,” said a Kalshi spokesperson. “It was an option on Kalshi’s Live Action Short Film market. We also made sure people knew our rules by featuring them prominently above the market.”

Polymarket handled the issue of ties differently. According to the market rules, in the case of a tie, the winning contract would be the first in alphabetical order.

That meant that “Two People,” which was a narrow favorite heading into the night, end up going to zero. “The Singers” was declared the winner on Polymarket.

“The Singers” was an underdog on both sites – at 28.5% odds on Polymarket and 17.9% on Kalshi.

The action on the live action short film category was relatively trivial compared to categories like best actor and best picture. On Kalshi, $440,736 was traded on the category, while on Polymarket it was $243,091.

By comparison, some $60 million was traded in the best picture category on both sites. Perhaps the biggest winner here is the Academy’s accountants PricewaterhouseCoopers. The mere $2,365 traded on this unlikeliest of outcomes doesn’t raise red flags that anyone was tipped off.