Final Oscar Predictions: Best Picture — Will ‘Sinners’ or ‘One Battle After Another’ Lead the Nomination Tally?

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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Oscars Best Picture Commentary (Updated Jan. 20, 2026): The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced Tuesday that 317 feature films are eligible for consideration at the 98th Academy Awards, including 201 titles that qualify for the best picture race.

What makes this year particularly unpredictable is the lack of consensus on which 10 films could be.

“Sinners” could make history with its nomination count, while “One Battle After Another” brings Paul Thomas Anderson’s auteur credibility and could tie, even break, that same record. Meanwhile, voter feedback reveals some surprising enthusiasm for “F1,” which I describe as “comfort food” that older Academy members genuinely love.

With Neon’s international titles potentially splitting votes and Netflix’s “Train Dreams” gaining late momentum, the preferential ballot system could produce genuine shocks when nominations are announced.

Here are the British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) longlist 10 for best film: “The Ballad of Wallis Island”; “Bugonia”; “Frankenstein”; “Hamnet”; “I Swear”; “Marty Supreme”; “Nuremberg”; “One Battle After Another”; “Sentimental Value” and “Sinners.”

Here are the Producers Guild of America (PGA) nominations for best picture: “Bugonia,” “F1,” “Frankenstein,” “Hamnet,” “Marty Supreme,” “One Battle After Another,” “Sentimental Value,” “Sinners,” “Train Dreams” and “Weapons.”

The Golden Globes went with “Hamnet” for best picture (drama) with “One Battle After Another” taking home best picture (comedy or musical).

The Actor Awards nominated “Frankenstein,” “Hamnet,” “Marty Supreme,” “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners” for best cast ensemble.

Official nominations for the 98th Academy Awards will be revealed Thursday, Jan. 22. The 98th Academy Awards will take place Sunday, March 15, at the Dolby Theatre and will be televised live on ABC in more than 200 territories worldwide.

NOTE: All credited producers are subject to change.

See all Academy Award predictions below:

Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars

• Eligible Titles (Best Picture)