Will Tom Cruise’s ‘Digger’ Continue Warner Bros.’ Dismal Box Office Year?

Tom Cruise has built a career on jumping out of airplanes, scaling skyscrapers and performing other high-wire antics in the name of entertainment. His next stunt may be his riskiest yet: Getting moviegoers to see “Digger,” a rare big-budget, star-driven R-rated original comedy.

The Warner Bros. release, which opens on Oct. 2, represents one of the fall season’s biggest gambles. There’s pressure on “Digger” not just to offset the studio’s terrible year at the box office (with bombs including Maggie Gyllenhaal’s punk rock “The Bride!” and DC’s “Supergirl”) but also to impress the new corporate ownership. Paramount Skydance hopes to imminently close its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery.

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It might not be Digger Rockwell to the rescue. “Digger,” directed by Alejandro González Iñárritu and starring an unrecognizable Cruise as a powerful oil tycoon whose company sparks an ecological calamity, is tracking a hugely disappointing launch of $12 million to $15 million in North America. Projections were at $18 million to $20 million but were revised down in recent days.

The film was greenlit at $125 million, but according to four knowledgable sources, the budget climbed to $160 million to $180 million after production went over schedule. A Warner Bros. spokesperson disputes those figures. Regardless, a movie of this size would need a debut near $40 million to justify its budget, per rival execs. Since exhibitors keep about half of ticket sales, and the studio spent another $100 million on marketing, “Digger” has a theatrical break-even point of roughly $350 million globally, according to executives with knowledge of similar films. A Warner Bros. spokesperson pushed back, saying the film’s break-even point is $300 million.

Reviews and word of mouth will factor into the film’s box office longevity, analysts say. They also note that “Digger” could be bigger overseas, where Cruise’s movies tend to make the bulk of their money. Profitability for WB may take longer because Cruise gets first-dollar gross, meaning he earns a percentage of revenues before the studio recoups any costs.

“Kudos to Warner Bros. for taking a chance; Tom Cruise has earned that right,” says analyst Jeff Bock of Exhibitor Relations. “But let’s be honest about where Tom Cruise is today. He’s a franchise machine. Can audiences accept him as a transformative actor again after he’s branded himself as the action hero?”

“Digger” is Cruise’s first original movie since 2017’s hit “American Made.” (That year, he also starred in the notorious flop “The Mummy.”) A bankable draw since the ‘80s, Cruise became synonymous with action stardom through the enduring “Mission: Impossible” franchise and then endeared himself to younger generations with 2022’s blockbuster “Top Gun: Maverick.” But even Cruise has learned the hard way that moviegoers have become pickier about what’s worth leaving the couch. His final two “Mission: Impossible” films — 2023’s “Dead Reckoning” and 2025’s “The Final Reckoning” — faced diminishing returns at the box office.

Cruise, an elusive star who doesn’t talk to press, has worked aggressively — if selectively — to sell “Digger.” Amid his global promotional tour, he made a rare podcast appearance on Travis and Jason Kelce’s “New Heights” and sat for his first cover story in two decades with GQ magazine — which raised eyebrows because the actor managed to avoid any personal questions and relentlessly directed the conversation back to his passion for movies.

“It takes a herculean effort to get word-of-mouth going for a black comedy,” says Bock. “Tom knows he has to go the extra mile with this film. His name alone isn’t going to sell it.”

Beyond Cruise’s star power, Warner Bros. co-chairs Pamela Abdy and Michael De Luca were willing to spend big on “Digger” because Iñárritu, too, has a strong commercial track record. His 2015 film “The Revenant” generated $533 million globally and earned Leonardo DiCaprio his long-awaited best actor Oscar. And 2014’s “Birdman” grossed $103 million against an $18 million budget and won best picture. Iñárritu hasn’t released a film theatrically in more than a decade; his last movie, the polarizing drama “Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths,” was set at Netflix.

“The combination of an accomplished auteur and a top star has resulted in some very interesting and successful pictures,” says analyst David A. Gross of Franchise Re, citing examples like “One Battle After Another” with DiCaprio and director Paul Thomas Anderson and “F1” with Brad Pitt and director Joseph Kosinski. “But the movie has to connect and satisfy broad tastes. If word-of-mouth is poor, the film is going to struggle.”

Abdy and De Luca, known for their taste and talent relations, faced similar scrutiny ahead of last year’s “One Battle After Another” — another expensive, auteurist swing. That film opened to $22 million and climbed to $213 million globally. Although an impressive result for a nearly three-hour original comedic drama, those returns weren’t enough to get the movie out of the red. “One Battle” lost $100 million theatrically. It did, however, prove valuable in other ways — namely, winning the best picture Oscar.

Moreover, Warner Bros. could withstand the major write-down because it was riding high on a massive year at the box office. The studio had fielded an unprecedented run of profitable hits, including “Sinners,” “A Minecraft Movie,” “Weapons” and “Final Destination: Bloodlines.” In 2025, the company had seven movies that grossed $100 million domestically and commanded 21% of the North American box office.

Fast forward a year, and Warner Bros. isn’t in the same shape. The studio has yet to release a single film that grossed $100 million domestically, and commands just 6% of the domestic market. That’s while the box office is enjoying its biggest year since the onset of COVID, fueled by the best summer season ever recorded.

For all the eyes on Warner Bros. as the studio braces for new leadership, Paramount isn’t having much better a year. Despite profitable releases like “Scary Movie” and “Scream,” Paramount ranks seventh among studios with just 5% of the domestic marketshare.

Warners is expected to rebound with December’s “Dune: Part III.” The third entry in Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi franchise, starring Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya and Robert Pattinson, is shaping up to be the highest-grossing installment in the series.

But before returning to the desert planet of Arrakis, the studio has to mop up a lot of red ink. “The Bride!” will lose $100 million theatrically after collapsing with $24 million worldwide against a $90 million budget. “Supergirl” tapped out with $126 million globally against a $170 million budget, and will lose $80 million. “The End of Oak Street,” a sci-fi adventure starring Anne Hathaway and Ewan McGregor, has grossed $121 million worldwide against an $85 million budget, putting estimated theatrical losses between $25 million and $40 million. “Practical Magic 2,” a legacy sequel that brought back Nicole Kidman and Sandra Bullock as witchy sisters, is running out of steam with $92 million globally against a $75 million budget; it could lose around $30 million to $40 million in its theatrical run. (A source close to “Practical Magic 2” disputes the loss and says the film could net a $5 million profit.)

Meanwhile the studio’s few 2026 wins were modest: Emerald Fennell and Margot Robbie’s “Wuthering Heights” adaptation, the studio’s highest-grossing release so far with $242 million worldwide, will generate $40 million in profits. “Lee Cronin’s The Mummy” earned $90 million and will yield around $10 million for the studio. “Mortal Kombat II” grossed $129 million against an $80 million budget and will result in gains of $10 million.

Analysts point out that no one is immune to the occasional flop. Traditional studios try to craft a slate of films so the easy wins (usually sequels or reboots in reliable properties) can offset the creative gambles in a given year. Moreover, studios rely on franchises and bankable stars to drive value across the company, not just on the big screen. Theatrical is just one component of profitability — though box office returns dictate the downstream terms for TV and Pay 1 deals.

“Ancillary income — digital rental, sales, streaming and TV licensing — is an essential part of the equation for every studio movie,” Gross says. “That is where a star like Tom Cruise pays back.”

Earlier this year, Warner Bros. defended its slate, saying, “We believe the business is better served with studios taking bold swings on originals.” Rival executives laud the company for investing in new ideas but wonder if there’s a more economical way to do so.

“It’s not about the movies,” says one industry source. “It comes down to the dealmaking and the budgets.”