2026 Oscar predictions: Who will win, who should win

14 Mar 2026, 06:00 by Moira Macdonald · The Seattle Times

Fasten your seat belts; these Oscars could be a bumpy night.

And that’s a good thing, where the Academy Awards are concerned. Too often, Oscar night arrives with the major winners already seemingly pre-anointed. This year, in the main categories, two big, imaginative, wildly creative movies are in the mix, and honestly, I have no idea which one will come out on top Sunday night. It’s a kick.

Should these movies need introduction: “Sinners,” the supercharged blues vampire movie from Ryan Coogler (and how often do you see “blues vampire movie” on a best picture nominee?), made Oscar history earlier this year, with its 16 nominations blazing past the previous record of 14. “One Battle After Another,” Paul Thomas Anderson’s epic, gonzo tale of an aging revolutionary in search of his kidnapped daughter, is only slightly behind with 13 nominations (putting it in the Academy’s all-time top 20).

In theaters last April (rather than in the typically Oscar-friendly late-year slots), “Sinners” was a critical and box-office success, earning more than $300 million worldwide. But despite its record nominations, it seemed like an also-ran until early this month. “One Battle After Another” had won the earlier awards — Directors Guild, Producers Guild, British Academy of Film and Television Arts. And then came the Actor Awards (formerly known as the Screen Actors Guild Awards) on March 1 — a strong Oscar harbinger, as actors make up the largest subset of the 11,000-member Academy. “Sinners” won the ensemble award, and its star, Michael B. Jordan, took best actor — and suddenly, it was anyone’s race.

How to watch the Oscars
The 98th Academy Awards ceremony, hosted by Conan O’Brien, will be held Sunday, March 15, starting at 4 p.m. The ceremony will be broadcast live on ABC, and can be streamed live on Hulu, and abc.com and the ABC app by authenticating with your provider. It can also be streamed with a subscription to services such as Hulu Live TV, YouTubeTV, AT&T TV and FuboTV. See oscars.org/how-to-watch for more information.

Meanwhile, the acting nominations are delightfully up in the air, for reasons both laudable and silly. Is it possible that Jessie Buckley has squandered her best actress lock by giving an interview in which she talked about how she doesn’t like cats? Yes. Could Amy Madigan, 40 years after her first nomination for best supporting actress, win for her wildly over-the-top performance in the horror film “Weapons”? Maybe. Can Jordan become the first performer to win an Oscar for a dual role? I wouldn’t bet against him. Could I be wrong about all three of these? Absolutely.

One more factor in this year’s unpredictability: The Academy, for the first time, is requiring that voters certify that they have actually watched the films they are voting for. It’s still an honor system — for those who see movies outside of the official Academy viewing portal, no one’s checking attendance — but a key acknowledgment that the Academy wants to remind voters to take the job seriously. Might this mean a few more wild-card wins, rather than just the films with the highest visibility? We shall see.

Anyway, off we go — here are my picks for who we might see at the podium on Oscar night, along with a few salutes to some non-nominated favorites. Take my predictions with the largest grain of salt possible. No matter who wins, it should be a good night: Meg Ryan and Billy Crystal will present a tribute to the late Rob Reiner (I’m sorry, there’s something in my eye); Barbra Streisand will sing in honor of the late Robert Redford (wow, my other eye too); and Teyana Taylor is sure to wear something spectacular. See you Sunday night!

Best picture

There are 10 movies on the slate, but as described above, only two have a real chance of winning the big prize. I’m kind of thinking “Sinners” has some momentum? But honestly, ask me again in an hour, and I’ll go with “One Battle After Another.” No other movie has a chance, though “Hamnet” might have slightly more of a non-chance than the rest of the lineup. (How fun would it be to be a producer of “F1,” who can bask in the honor of the nomination but really hit the bar, knowing there’s not a chance in hell of a win.)

Prediction: “Sinners”

My vote: “Hamnet”

Wish you were here: “The Testament of Ann Lee”

Best director

So, the winner of this category is usually the same person who won the Directors Guild of America Award, which this year would be Anderson. I wouldn’t bet against it — but then again, it’s not a foolproof predictor, and Coogler just might run the night with “Sinners.” I’d be astonished if it wasn’t one of those two, though. Also nominated, and likely on hand to clap politely: Josh Safdie (“Marty Supreme”), Joachim Trier (“Sentimental Value”), Chloé Zhao (“Hamnet”).

Prediction: Anderson, “One Battle After Another”

My vote: Zhao, “Hamnet”

Wish you were here: Guillermo del Toro, “Frankenstein”

Best actress

This was, until earlier this month, the safest bet of the season. Buckley, making her debut in this category, gave an unforgettable performance as a grieving young mother in “Hamnet,” and swept every pre-Oscars award. Then an interview surfaced in which she said she doesn’t like cats (she walked that back later on “The Tonight Show,” though after the voting deadline had passed), and … just how online is the typical Oscar voter anyway? She’ll probably still win, but it’s an amusing little controversy (and I say this as both Team Buckley and Team Cat). Rose Byrne has an outside shot for “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You,” but her film received little support elsewhere, likewise Kate Hudson for “Song Sung Blue.” Renate Reinsve needs to pray for a “Sentimental Value” sweep, which seems less than likely, and Emma Stone (“Bugonia”), a previous two-time winner in this category, will almost certainly remain seated this time.

Prediction: Buckley

My vote: Buckley (though my cat might feel differently)

Wish you were here: Amanda Seyfried, “The Testament of Ann Lee”

Best actor

I am completely rooting for Jordan here (“Sinners”), because as far as I can figure, nobody has ever won an Oscar for a dual role, and Jordan, as twins Smoke and Stack, absolutely deserves to blaze that trail. His competition: Leonardo DiCaprio (“One Battle After Another”), who won this category 10 years ago for “The Revenant,” and Timothée Chalamet, a three-time nominee who’s never won but is in the hunt with “Marty Supreme” — despite managing to alienate the opera and ballet communities with some ill-considered remarks during his pre-awards press push. Ethan Hawke (“Blue Moon”) and Wagner Moura (“The Secret Agent”) are long shots.

Prediction: Jordan

My vote: Jordan

Wish you were here: Joel Edgerton, “Train Dreams”

Best supporting actress

Madigan (“Weapons”) won the Actor Award, Wunmi Mosaku (“Sinners”) won the BAFTA, Teyana Taylor (“One Battle After Another”) won the Golden Globe, and this category’s a crapshoot. I’m thinking the sentimental favorite is Madigan, whose long career in Hollywood is a great story. Also nominated but unlikely to factor: Elle Fanning (“Sentimental Value”), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (“Sentimental Value”).

Prediction: Madigan

My vote: Taylor

Wish you were here: Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another”

Best supporting actor

Likewise, this category’s all over the place: Jacob Elordi (“Frankenstein”) won the Critics Choice, Stellan Skarsgård (“Sentimental Value”) the Golden Globe, and Sean Penn (“One Battle After Another”) the BAFTA and the Actor Award. And there’s likely some sentimental support for Delroy Lindo (“Sinners”), receiving his first-ever Oscar nomination at 73, and Benicio Del Toro (“One Battle After Another”), who won this category 25 years ago for “Traffic.” And all this adds up to … another complete toss-up. We shall see!

Prediction: Oh … I don’t know. Penn?

My vote: Lindo

Wish you were here: Paul Mescal, “Hamnet”

Best adapted screenplay

The screenplay awards are one place where “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners” aren’t competing against each other, as they’re in different categories. But unusual things often happen in the writing categories. Remember how, in 2024, the (excellent) adapted screenplay for “American Fiction” won out over “Oppenheimer” and “Barbie”? So things could get interesting here! The obvious pick in this category is “One Battle After Another,” loosely adapted by Anderson from Thomas Pynchon’s “Vineland.” But I wonder if the Academy might want to hand Guillermo del Toro a prize for “Frankenstein” in this category, or Zhao and novelist Maggie O’Farrell for “Hamnet”? Or why not the minimalist, lovely screenplay of “Train Dreams,” or the unpredictable fantasia of “Bugonia”? Stay tuned!

Prediction: Anderson, “One Battle After Another”

My vote: Zhao and O’Farrell, “Hamnet”

Wish you were here: Nia DaCosta, “Hedda”

Best original screenplay

Likewise, “Sinners” is the obvious front-runner, but I’m thinking we might see a wild card here, like “It Was Just an Accident” or “Blue Moon.” Or one of two films with multiple nominations that aren’t expected to win other major categories — “Marty Supreme” and “Sentimental Value” — as a sort of consolation prize. But naah, probably “Sinners” will get it, and deservedly so.

Prediction: Coogler, “Sinners”

My vote: Coogler, “Sinners”

Wish you were here: David Koepp, “Black Bag”