One million adults who never smoked in England now vape, study suggests

According to the research, as of April 2024 the number has risen to one million, representing a sevenfold increase since 2021

Research indicates that approximately one million adults in England, who have never been habitual smokers, are now using e-cigarettes. A recent study has highlighted a significant rise in the number of non-smokers taking up vaping since 2021, coinciding with the surge in popularity of disposable e-cigarettes.

As of April 2024, this figure has soared to one million, marking a sevenfold increase from 2021, as reported in Lancet Public Health. The study points out that most of these individuals vape on a daily basis over extended periods.

The trend is predominantly seen among young adults, with data showing that about 14% of 18 to 24 year olds who have never smoked regularly are now engaging in e-cigarette use. Although there has been an overall uptick in vaping since 2021, the growth has plateaued since early 2023.

Experts argue that the UK Government's current plan to ban disposable vapes may not effectively address the issue, noting that some brands have already introduced reusable alternatives. They advocate for stricter regulations to make the products less attractive.

Professor Jamie Brown from the UCL Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, the senior author of the study, commented: "These findings are a reminder that action is required to try to minimise vaping among young people who have never previously smoked."

He added, "However, a balancing act is required to avoid deterring smokers from using e-cigarettes to quit."

"Banning disposables, as the UK Government currently plans, is unlikely to fix the issue as popular brands have already launched reusable products with very similar designs and prices. " "A sensible next step would be to introduce stricter regulation around product appearance, packaging and marketing, as those are less likely to reduce the effectiveness of e-cigarettes for smoking cessation – unlike, for instance, flavour bans."

"The fact that overall vaping prevalence appears to have levelled off since 2023 may reassure policymakers that it would be reasonable to begin with these measures and assess their impact."

In July's King’s Speech, ministers pledged to introduce a Tobacco and Vapes Bill aiming to incrementally raise the legal purchasing age for cigarettes – mirroring an earlier Bill by the previous Conservative administration which proposed prohibiting sales to individuals born from 2009 onwards. A study examining data from 153,073 English adults over 18, collected between 2016 and 2024, found 94,107 participants who had never smoked tobacco regularly.

People were considered never-regular-smokers if they reported "I have never been a smoker (smoked for a year or more)" Prior to 2021, the percentage of never-regular-smokers who vaped in England was minimal, averaging just 0.5% from 2016 to 2020. However, by April 2024, this figure rose sharply to 3.5%, equating to around one million vapers.

The study revealed that out of those who have never been regular smokers, a staggering 588,000 are aged between 18 and 24. It also highlighted that the most significant uptick in vaping was observed among heavy drinkers across all age groups, with 22% taking up e-cigarettes.

This is a stark contrast to just 3.0% and 1.3% of low-risk or non-alcohol drinkers respectively. The findings suggest that vaping might be particularly prevalent among individuals who would otherwise be inclined to smoke, according to the researchers.

They also noted a trend in recent years where non-regular smokers who vape tend to be younger, increasingly female, and more likely to consume alcohol at higher-risk levels. Additionally, this group appears to have been using e-cigarettes for a longer duration, favouring disposable devices and high-strength nicotine e-liquids, and typically purchasing their vaping products from supermarkets or convenience stores.

Dr Sarah Jackson from the UCL Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care commented: "The public health impact of this substantial rise in vaping among people who have never regularly smoked will depend on what these people would otherwise be doing."

She added: "It is likely that some would have smoked if vaping were not an available option," and "In this case, vaping is clearly less harmful."

However, she warned: "However, for those who would not have gone on to smoke, vaping regularly over a sustained period poses more risk than not vaping."

A study led by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) suggests that prohibiting the sale of tobacco to individuals born between 2006 and 2010 could prevent 1.2 million lung cancer deaths by 2095. The findings are based on a scenario where sales were banned for those born between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2010, with perfect enforcement.

This group encompasses a total of 650 million people. Published in The Lancet Public Health, the research includes data from 185 countries, drawing from the World Health Organisation Mortality Database and the IARC Cancer Incidence in Five Continents database.

Another study from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors (GBD) Tobacco Forecasting Collaborators, also published in the same journal, examined accelerating the global decline in tobacco smoking. It found that reducing smoking from current levels to 5% globally could increase life expectancy and prevent millions of premature deaths by 2050 – resulting in an additional year of life expectancy in males and 0.2 years in females.

The findings suggest that based on current trends, global life expectancy is likely to rise to 78.3 years by 2050 – up from 73.6 years in 2022. If tobacco smoking was eliminated from 2023 onwards, this could result in up to 1.5 additional years of life expectancy among males and 0.4 years among females in 2050.

Professor Stein Emil Vollset, senior author from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, asserted: "We must not lose momentum in efforts to reduce, and ultimately eliminate, smoking around the world."

He also emphasised the potential health benefits, adding: "Our findings highlight that millions of premature deaths could be avoided by bringing an end to smoking."

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