El Niño Is Here And Scientists Say This One Could Become A “Godzilla” Event

The Pacific warning has become an active global climate event.

El Niño has officially begun. The recurring climate pattern, marked by unusually warm water spreading across the central and eastern tropical Pacific, can shift weather around the world for months. What was building beneath the tropical Pacific is no longer just a warning sign. The warm-water pulse we reported on in May has now surfaced into a full El Niño, with NOAA confirming that the event has begun and is expected to strengthen through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026–2027.

Based on the new NOAA data, this event has a 63% chance of becoming “very strong” by November–January—a level that would place it among the largest events in the modern record. A forecast that aggressive, this early in the event raises the odds of flood seasons, missed seasonal rains, stressed fisheries, altered hurricane activity, and a global temperature jump in 2027. The event is also forming after a rapid flip from La Niña, with unusually warm oceans already loading the climate system before El Niño adds its own push.

A Small Recap

Strong El Niños have happened before, including 1982–83, 1997–98 and 2015–16. But this one has several unusual features.

First, the transition is fast. The world was still in La Niña—El Niño’s cooler counterpart—as recently as winter 2025. A swing from La Niña to a possible very strong El Niño in the same year is rare in the modern record (and it’s not good news)

Second, the models are unusually aligned. In March 2026, Nat Johnson, a meteorologist at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, saw his earth system model project the second-strongest El Niño since 1991. “Only 1997 was comparable,” Johnson said, according to Science. “I knew that this was something unusual.”

Third, the event is forming on an already warmer planet. El Niño is a natural phenomenon. Climate change does not start the cycle itself, but it raises its baseline. Heat waves begin from higher temperatures. Coral reefs and fisheries enter the event already stressed. Drought-hit regions have less margin for another failed rainy season.

What to Expect in Late 2026

El Niño doesn’t affect every region in the same way. It shifts probabilities.

The earliest and clearest risks often sit around the Pacific. Northern Peru and southern Ecuador can see heavy rain and flooding. Warmer coastal waters can also disrupt fisheries by weakening the cold, nutrient-rich upwelling that supports marine life.

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Farther west, Indonesia, Australia, and parts of southern Asia often face higher odds of drought, heat, and wildfire. The WMO also notes that El Niño is typically linked with drier conditions across Central America, the Caribbean and northern South America, while parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and central Asia can see higher rainfall risks.

Storm patterns may also shift. El Niño often increases Atlantic wind shear, making hurricanes harder to sustain, while favoring more activity in the eastern and central Pacific, according to NOAA hurricane researchers. Atlantic-facing regions may see some relief. Pacific islands and Pacific-facing coasts, however, may face more active seasons.

Agriculture remains one of the hardest forecasts. Some regions may gain rain. Others may lose crops when rain arrives too late, too hard, or not at all. WMO urges early warnings and planning for agriculture, water, energy, and health before impacts peak.

2027 Could Be Even Worse

El Niño often saves part of its global temperature effect for after it peaks. If this event strengthens through winter 2026–27, the biggest global heat signal may arrive in 2027.

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That doesn’t mean more heat everywhere. It means a higher global baseline, with regional extremes layered on top: hotter heat waves, warmer seas, greater cooling demand, and added stress on crops, livestock, coral reefs and fisheries.

Prof. Adam Scaife, head of monthly to decadal prediction at the UK Met Office, put the concern plainly. “The current El Niño is… riding on top of a substantial amount of global warming,” he told the BBC. “This means that the actual temperatures in affected regions could well be unprecedented, as the warming from El Niño is being topped up by climate change.”

In other words, 2027 may become the year when this super El Niño is felt most widely.

What Now?

This is not a time to panic. We have warnings like this so we can get organized.

The next few months will decide whether this El Niño becomes a strong or “very strong” (Godzilla) event. Forecasters will be watching whether warm water keeps spreading east across the tropical Pacific and whether the atmosphere keeps reinforcing that shift through wind and rainfall changes.

That leaves room for revision. NOAA’s forecast is unusually confident, but it is still a forecast. A very strong El Niño would make some regional outcomes more likely, not guaranteed.

The best response is to use the forecast as lead time. Local agencies can compare seasonal outlooks with their own vulnerabilities: places that flood easily should review flood plans; places prone to heat or drought should prepare earlier than usual; coastal economies tied to Pacific fisheries should watch ocean conditions closely.

The public-facing message should stay measured. This is not a fixed script for the next two years. It is an early warning that the climate system has shifted into a pattern known for disruption—and this time, it is doing so on a hotter planet.