Kiko regains Category 4 status; expected to weaken and move north of Hawaii

06 Sep 2025, 17:47 by Star-Advertiser Staff · Star-Advertiser

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COURTESY CPHC

The five-day forecast track of Hurricane Kiko as of 5 p.m. today

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COURTESY NOAA

This color-enhanced satellite image shows Hurricane Kiko in the Central Pacific today.

UPDATE: 5:20 p.m.

Hurricane Kiko regained its Category 4 strength this afternoon with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph but forecasters still expect it to weaken as it moves north of Hawaii early next week.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu said that at about 5 p.m., Kiko was 860 miles east-southeast of Hilo and 1,065 east-southeast of Honolulu, moving northwest at 12 mph.

“This general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. … Only minor fluctuations in strength are anticipated tonight, with gradual weakening expected to begin by Sunday,” forecasters said.

Kiko remains a compact storm with hurricane-force winds extending up to 25 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph or more extending up to 70 miles.

There are no Kiko-related coastal watches or warnings in effect for Hawaii but CPHC urges people in the islands to continue monitoring the progress of the storm.

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“Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian islands during the early to middle portion of next week. While the forecast track currently calls for Kiko to pass north of the islands, it is still too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of potential impacts from the cyclone’s winds or rains,” forecasters said.

They said swells generated by the hurricane are expected to begin reaching the Big Island and Maui by Sunday.

“These swells will gradually build and are forecast to peak along east-facing exposures of the Hawaiian islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing life-threatening surf and rip currents,” the CPHC said.

Kiko is expected to be a weakening tropical storm Tuesday and Wednesday as it passes north of Oahu and Kauai.

The latest five-day forecast track’s “cone of uncertainty” no longer covers any Hawaiian island and has the storm safely northwest of Kauai as a tropical depression by the end of next week. The entire island chain was covered in the “cone of uncertainty” on Friday, but the updated forecast now has Kiko on a more northerly track.

“Kiko may hold Category 4 strength into the evening, but gradual weakening is expected to begin overnight, with it likely falling below major hurricane status by Sunday night,” CPHC said in its 5 p.m. update. … Beyond Monday, the combined effects of increasing mid-level dry air and strengthening west-southwesterly shear should accelerate the weakening process”

From Tuesday through Thursday, “Kiko is forecast to be a much weaker, shallow, and sheared system as it passes north of the Hawaiian islands,” forecasters said. On Thursday, Kiko is expected to be a tropical depression far northwest of Kauai.

Officials said an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft was scheduled to investigate Kiko tonight for a better assessment of Kiko’s intensity and structure.

The National Weather Service, meanwhile, said increased shower activity is expected Sunday into Monday morning due to a passing band of moisture and an upper low approaching from the north.

“Confidence is increasing that Tropical Cyclone Kiko will pass far enough north of the state next week to decreases the likelihood of any direct impacts to Hawaii,” NHC forecasters said. “However, life-threatening surf along east-facing shores will be possible along with an increased potential for statewide rainfall.”

11:50 a.m.

Kiko weakened slightly this morning but remains a major hurricane far from Hawaii in the Central Pacific, and forecasters expect it to significantly decrease in strength in three to four days as it passes north of the islands.

At 11 a.m., Kiko had maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, moving west-northwest at 12 mph, and was centered 935 miles east-southeast of Hilo and 1,135 east-southeast of Honolulu, according to Central Pacific Hurricane Center forecasters. Kiko’s hurricane-force winds extend up to 25 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds up to 80 miles outward, they said.

“Tropical Cyclone Kiko will be approaching Hawaii from the southeast. Kiko’s current forecast track is north of the islands across the far northern offshore waters,” the National Hurricane Center said. “While confidence is low concerning Kiko’s impacts to Hawaii early to mid next week, there is a possibly of higher statewide rainfall.”

Currently a Category 3 hurricane, Kiko is expected to soon hit drier conditions and wind shear, both of which will weaken the storm. “Kiko (is) expected to shear apart vertically” Tuesday and Wednesday as it passes far north of the islands as a tropical storm, CPHC forecasters said in the 11 a.m. update.

There are no Kiko-related advisories, watches or warnings for Hawaii, but forecasters said that swells generated by the hurricane are expected to begin reaching the Big Island and Maui by Sunday.

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Kiko today to provide a better look at the storm’s intensity and structure, officials said.

Hawaii’s weather this weekend, meanwhile, is expected to be dry and stable with highs in the upper-80s and lows in the mid-70s, according to the National Weather Service.

“Cloudier, warm and muggy island weather is forecast early next week under weakened trades,” forecasters said, adding that there will be a slight increase in rain shower frequency Sunday into Monday.

PREVIOUS COVERAGE

Hurricane Kiko entered the Central Pacific today as a compact but powerful Category 4 storm, however forecasters expect it to begin weakening Sunday as it heads north of the Hawaiian islands.

The latest five-day forecast track no longer has the islands in Kiko’s so-called cone of uncertainty, but the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu stressed that people in Hawaii should continue to monitor its progress.

“Kiko’s current forecast track is north of the islands across the far northern offshore waters. While confidence is low concerning Kiko’s impacts to Hawaii early to mid next week, there is a possibly of higher statewide rainfall,” National Weather Service forecasters said.

At 5 a.m. today, Kiko had maximum sustained winds of 130 mph, moving west-northwest at 12 mph, and was centered 1,005 miles east-southeast of Hilo and 1,205 east-southeast of Honolulu, according to CPHC forecasters. Kiko’s hurricane-force winds extend up to 25 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds up to 80 miles outward, they said.

“Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian islands during the early to middle portion of next week. Impacts from rain and wind are possible over portions of the Islands, but it is still too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of these potential impacts,” forecasters said.

The five-day forecast track has Kiko as a major hurricane through Sunday afternoon, but weakening to a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds by Tuesday as it passes north of Oahu and a weak tropical storm by Thursday northwest of Kauai.

There are no Kiko-related advisories, watches or warnings for Hawaii, but forecasters said that swells generated by the hurricane are expected to begin reaching the Big Island and Maui by Sunday.

“These swells will gradually build and are forecast to peak along east-facing exposures of the Hawaiian Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing life-threatening surf and rip currents,” the CPHC said.

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Kiko today to provide a better look at the storm’s intensity and structure, officials said.

Hawaii’s weather this weekend, meanwhile, is expected to be dry and stable with highs in the upper-80s and lows in the mid-70s, according to the National Weather Service.

See more:Editors' Picks Hurricane Season Weather

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