One absurd raccoon army question just exposed a hidden flaw in how conspiracy beliefs get counted

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A mythical army of genetically engineered raccoons has helped Australian researchers show that belief in conspiracy theories may be less common than previously thought.

Findings from a Macquarie University study suggest many opinion poll surveys make belief in conspiracies look more common than it really is because some anonymous respondents don't answer truthfully, instead trolling, joking or not taking questions seriously. The study is published in the journal Collabra: Psychology.

As part of an online survey, the Macquarie researchers asked 1,044 Australians to rate each of seven conspiracy theories as true or false. Six of these conspiracy theories were pre-existing and well aired, but one was invented by the research team and farcically bizarre: "The Canadian Armed Forces have been secretly developing an elite army of genetically engineered, super intelligent, giant raccoons to invade nearby countries."

An astonishing 10% of respondents said they rated the raccoon army theory as "probably true" or "definitely true," and people who endorsed the raccoon army theory were much more likely to endorse the pre-existing conspiracy theories.

For example, 69% of those who endorsed the raccoon theory also agreed that "A secret group of Satan-worshipping pedophiles has taken control of parts of the Australian federal government and mainstream Australian media," compared to just 13% of survey respondents overall.

Analysis showed those who accepted the raccoon claim also endorsed an average of four of the six pre-existing conspiracy theories; those who rejected the raccoon story on average endorsed only one or none of the six other conspiracies.

Survey participants were also asked to consider two clearly contradictory theories about coronavirus—"Governments are covering up the fact that 5G mobile networks spread coronavirus" and "Coronavirus is a myth created by some powerful forces, and the virus does not really exist."

Somewhat surprisingly, the researchers discovered that the group of "Raccoon army believers" were also far more likely (56% versus 7% overall) to agree with both conflicting coronavirus conspiracy theories.

The study investigators say their findings challenge widely held assumptions about the prevalence of genuine belief in conspiracy theories.

"Survey research is often interpreted as showing that belief in conspiracy theories is widespread, even when theories would be astonishing if true," said lead author Dr. Robert Ross, of the School of Psychological Sciences at Macquarie.

"For example, the results of a 2013 survey were widely reported in the media as indicating that 12 million Americans endorsed the idea that shape-shifting lizard people actually control human societies and hold political power."

In fact, 13% of participants in the Macquarie research admitted in response to a follow-up question that they had answered earlier questions randomly or insincerely, and this group were found to have endorsed the greatest number of the six conspiracy theories.

A similar follow-up study in New Zealand, published in Royal Society Open Science, has broadly replicated the Australian findings.

"As researchers, we need to get out of the habit of assuming that when participants say they agree with claims in a survey, then they sincerely believe them," said Dr. Ross.

"We need to seriously consider that they might not be sincere—they may be joking, trolling or otherwise not saying what they really think, especially when the claims are bizarre."

Publication details

Robert M. Ross et al, Do People Sincerely Believe Conspiracy Theories That They Endorse?, Collabra: Psychology (2026). DOI: 10.1525/collabra.159253

Matt Williams et al, Do you really believe that? Examining the prevalence and predictors of belief in conspiracy theories when accounting for insincerity, Royal Society Open Science (2026). DOI: 10.1098/rsos.260163

Journal information: Royal Society Open Science

Provided by Macquarie University