High Mountain Asia's melting glaciers may threaten future water security

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Glaciers in High Mountain Asia—a region encompassing the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding mountain ranges—are shrinking rapidly, endangering water resources for millions of people, suggests a new study. Using satellite data from NASA's GRACE missions, results show that these extensive glacier systems, often called the "water towers of Asia," experienced significant losses in mass between 2002 and 2023. These findings reveal that if the extreme conditions that led to this decline continue, enhanced glacier melt could intensify short-term flood risks and substantially reduce long-term meltwater availability. The researchers say the findings underscore the need for reduced greenhouse gas emissions to stave off glacier melt and preserve a larger fraction of the region's cryospheric water storage.

Because communities in the area often rely on the glacier's large meltwater stores for hydropower generation, renewable energy, and large-scale irrigation systems, any changes in glacier size will have direct implications for local water security, agriculture, and natural hazard management, said Jaydeo Dharpure, lead author of the study and a former postdoctoral research associate at the Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center at The Ohio State University.

"Decreasing glacial mass change can threaten infrastructure and increase the risk of loss of life," he said. "While some ice losses and major disturbances are inevitable, glaciers play an important role for people living beside them, so learning to better monitor their evolutions is a must."

The study was recently published in the journal Scientific Reports.

There are currently more than 95,000 glaciers located in High Mountain Asia, most of which are spread across about 15 sub-regions, or smaller ecological areas.

To better grasp the extent of mass loss from these critical glaciers, researchers examined changes in Earth's gravity field to determine how much frozen water was lost or added to the glaciers each year. Machine learning models were also used to address mission gaps in long-term glacier monitoring. In all, the team found that while water and ice loss steadily went up throughout the years, there was pronounced melt variability across certain subregions.

Eastern Kunlun, for example, a mountain system that lies between the Tibetan Plateau and the Tarim Basin in western China, gained ice over the last few decades, but West Tien Shan, a mountain range that stretches in the opposite direction, did experience rapid mass losses.

According to the study, the differences in outcomes for these subregions could have been caused by rising global temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, or even radiation emitted by the sun. But while challenging to study, because the glacier system in High Mountain Asia significantly influences global climate regulation, using new techniques to understand how the region reacts to these drivers as a whole is potentially one of the best ways future scientists can create more accurate global climate models, said Dharpure.

"This is important work, because if these glaciers vanish in the future, downstream communities won't just experience drinking or agricultural water shortages," he said. Instead, melting glaciers would form new, uncharted lakes and rivers that continue to accumulate water, putting nearby communities in jeopardy, he said. "So scientists should be prepared to monitor how dangerous the many issues that disappearing glaciers cause will be for the billions of people they touch," said Dharpure.

Co-authors include Ohio State's Ian Howat and Akansha Patel from Texas A&M University AgriLife.

Publication details

Jaydeo K. Dharpure et al, Future projections of glacier mass change in High Mountain Asia using GRACE and climatemodel data, Scientific Reports (2026). DOI: 10.1038/s41598-026-39404-8

Journal information: Scientific Reports

Key concepts

effects of climate changehazardsglaciologywater resource management

Provided by The Ohio State University