Hidden ocean feedback loop could accelerate climate change

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The world's oceans may be quietly amplifying climate change in ways scientists are only beginning to understand. In a new study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, University of Rochester scientists—including Thomas Weber, an associate professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, and graduate student Shengyu Wang and postdoctoral research associate Hairong Xu in Weber's lab—uncovered a key mechanism behind methane production in the open ocean. Their research indicates that this mechanism could intensify as the planet warms, providing an alarming feedback loop for global warming.

Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas, and for decades scientists have puzzled over a paradox: Surface ocean waters consistently release methane into the atmosphere, even though surface water is rich in oxygen. Traditionally, methane production has been associated with oxygen-free environments, such as wetlands or deep sediments.

Unraveling the ocean methane mystery

Weber's team set out to solve this puzzle using a global dataset and computer modeling. Their findings point to a specific microbial process that is responsible for methane production in the ocean environment: Certain bacteria generate methane as a byproduct when they break down organic compounds, but they only do this when the nutrient phosphate is scarce.

"This means that phosphate scarcity is the primary control knob for methane production and emissions in the open ocean," Weber says.

The findings reframe how scientists understand methane production in the ocean. Rather than being a rare or unusual process, methane production in oxygen-rich environments may be widespread in regions where phosphate is limited.

A warming ocean's hidden feedback loop

But the study extends further than explaining marine methane production in the present—it also offers a troubling glimpse into the future.

"Climate change is warming the ocean from the top down, increasing the density difference between surface and deep waters," Weber says. "This is expected to slow the vertical mixing that carries nutrients like phosphate up from depth."

According to the team's model, with less vertical mixing, surface waters could become increasingly nutrient-starved, creating ideal conditions for methane-producing microbes to thrive.

The result, Weber warns, would be more methane released from the ocean into the atmosphere. Because methane is such a potent greenhouse gas, this creates the potential for a harmful feedback loop: Warming oceans lead to more methane emissions, which in turn drive further warming.

The findings highlight how even processes occurring at the microscopic level in the ocean can have global consequences.

Crucially, this feedback is not currently included in major climate projection models. As researchers continue to refine climate models, incorporating feedback such as this may be essential for accurately predicting the pace and scale of future climate change.

"Our work will help fill a key gap in climate predictions, which often overlook interactions between the changing environment and natural greenhouse gas sources in the atmosphere," Weber says.

Publication details

Shengyu Wang et al, Phosphate scarcity governs methane production in the global open ocean, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2026). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2521235123

Journal information: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Key concepts

ocean mixingeffects of climate changegreenhouse effectocean circulationgreenhouse gasesClimate ChangeGlobal Warming

Provided by University of Rochester