US will face a shortage of nearly 28,000 surgeons by 2038, first nationwide study finds

by American College of Surgeons

edited by Swati Mestri, reviewed by Andrew Zinin

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The United States will be short by nearly 28,000 surgeons by 2038, according to the first unified assessment of the country's surgical workforce.

The analysis found that the surgical workforce will meet just 84.3% of the country's need. The greatest shortfalls are projected in vascular surgery, ophthalmology, thoracic surgery and plastic surgery, with gaps expected to be worse in rural areas.

Concerns about a physician shortage aren't new, but previous estimates have focused on one or a handful of specialties, leaving no unified picture of how many surgeons the country will need or where.

The research will be presented at the American College of Surgeons (ACS) Clinical Congress 2026 in Washington, Sept. 26–29, where thousands of surgeons will convene to advance surgical quality, patient safety and access to care.

"Studies usually look at one specialty at a time, so a shortage looks like that specialty's problem," said Fernando Ribeiro Duraes, BA, a medical student at Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine and lead author of the study.

"When you put all 10 specialties together, you can see supply is projected to fall while demand keeps rising, and that the gaps are worse in rural areas. The fixes have to be targeted by specialty and by geography, not incremental."

Researchers used the Health Workforce Simulation Model (HWSM), a federal model from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, to analyze supply and demand across 10 surgical specialties from 2023 to 2038. They included ophthalmology, plastic surgery, vascular surgery, urology, orthopedics, otolaryngology, neurosurgery, thoracic surgery, general surgery and colorectal surgery.

To create demand projections, they analyzed demographics, health care use patterns and physician-to-population ratios.

Study results

Researchers found that overall surgeon supply is projected to decline 4.2% from 2023 to 2038, while demand for surgeons will increase by 12.8%. They anticipate a national shortfall of 27,940 surgeons. Across the U.S., the workforce is projected to meet 84.3% of the need. Four specialties face critical shortages: vascular surgery (65.8% of need met), ophthalmology (71.8%), thoracic surgery (73.1%) and plastic surgery (74.1%).

Four more specialties face moderate shortages: urology (84.4%), otolaryngology (87.5%), orthopedics (87.9%) and neurosurgery (88.7%). General surgery (91.3%) and colorectal surgery (98.3%) are projected to remain near equilibrium.

The gaps between surgeon supply and demand are projected to be worse in rural areas.

The study began close to home. Eliana Ferreira Ribeiro Duraes, MD, Ph.D., MBA, a plastic surgeon at the Cleveland Clinic and Fernando Duraes' mother, started the work by looking at shortages in her own specialty. "I saw [Fernando Duraes] and his colleagues trying to figure out what specialty they wanted," she said. That prompted a study of broader projections so they could "understand the future and what's expected to be the landscape in different surgical specialties."

For patients, surgical shortages mean longer waits for procedures. Patients may also need to travel farther for medical care, particularly those in rural areas who may have to drive hours for treatment.

The findings, researchers say, point to an urgent need to address future surgeon shortages through targeted workforce policies and geographic strategies beyond incremental changes. Fernando Duraes pointed to the proposed bill H.R. 3890, the Resident Physician Shortage Reduction Act, which would increase the number of residency positions, a figure that has not changed since 1997.

He also cited lifting recent caps on federal loan borrowing and expanding loan forgiveness programs for public service as ways to "encourage physicians to go to these rural areas," he said.

Key medical concepts

OphthalmologyPlastic Surgery Procedures

Clinical categories

General surgeryUrologyOrthopedicsOphthalmology Provided by American College of Surgeons Who's behind this story?

Swati Mestri

Swati Mestri holds a bachelor's degree in Electronics Engineering and has worked as a content editor since 2019. She has experience editing research documents across technology, health care, and materials science, and has a particular interest in technology and space. Full profile →

Andrew Zinin

Master's in physics with research experience. Long-time science news enthusiast. Plays key role in Science X's editorial success. Full profile →

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