Why some people skip the closest pharmacy—and what that means for health care deserts

by Society for Risk Analysis

edited by Sadie Harley, reviewed by Robert Egan

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An estimated 15.8 million people in the United States live in pharmacy deserts. With limited access to health care services, like hospitals and pharmacies, these individuals are at risk of elevated mortality risk and higher rates of preventable disease progression.

A new study, published in Risk Analysis, has found that individual pharmacy choices are driven not only by proximity but by the sociodemographic character of the neighborhoods where they are located.

Researchers from California Polytechnic State University (Cal Poly) conducted a case study combining mobility data from mobile phone usage and pharmacy foot traffic patterns with demographic and socioeconomic census data to examine health care access in Los Angeles County, California.

The authors applied discrete choice theory to model consumer preferences and analyze demand behaviors in a state where health care access remains an issue.

"This research also draws a sharp distinction in how we understand access to essential services from a data-driven perspective," said co-author Daniel Hopkins, an industrial engineering student at Cal Poly.

"Much of the existing literature has focused on potential access, describing the extent to which services are geographically proximate. In this research, we looked at people's realized access, showing their actual use of facilities."

The study found that only 70% of residents visited a pharmacy within 5km of their residence, despite nearly 98% having one that close (assuming individuals visit the nearest pharmacy). Additionally, over a third of low-income residents visited pharmacies in low-income areas while less than 7% traveled to wealthier neighborhoods for care, demonstrating that human mobility patterns exhibit strong social similarities.

"Geographic access is necessary but not sufficient," added Dr. Zhiyuan Wei, an assistant professor in the Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering.

"People are not just going to the nearest pharmacy. They are going to places that feel socially familiar to them, and that has real consequences for how we plan and allocate health care services."

The findings carry particular urgency given the scale of the pharmacy access problem nationally. Millions of Americans live in pharmacy deserts, areas with restricted access to the pharmacies that provide essential medications, rapid diagnostics and basic health services.

In California alone, nearly 2.5 million residents, or 6% of the population, live in pharmacy deserts, the highest total of any state. In LA County, roughly 25% of census tracts are classified as pharmacy deserts.

The researchers say their data-driven model can support decision-making beyond pharmacies, including grocery stores and other essential services, and could be especially valuable for understanding how access patterns shift during natural disasters and other hazard events, when mobility constraints intensify.

Publication details

Risk Analysis (2026).

Journal information: Risk Analysis

Key medical concepts

Health Services AccessibilityPrescription DrugsPoint-of-Care Testing

Clinical categories

Allied healthCommon illnesses & Prevention Provided by Society for Risk Analysis Who's behind this story?

Sadie Harley

BSc Life Sciences & Ecology. Microbiology lab background with pharmaceutical news experience in oil, gas, and renewable industries. Full profile →

Robert Egan

Bachelor's in mathematical biology, Master's in creative writing. Well-traveled with unique perspectives on science and language. Full profile →

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