Kidney disease, heart failure or death risk climbs to 55% 10 years after type 2 diabetes diagnosis

by European Association for the Study of Diabetes

edited by Sadie Harley, reviewed by Andrew Zinin

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The risk of developing chronic kidney disease (CKD) or heart failure (HF), or dying, following a type 2 diabetes (T2D) diagnosis increases substantially over time, according to new research being presented at the annual meeting of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD) in Milan, Italy, Sept. 28–Oct. 2.

The study, which analyzed data from more than 1.6 million patients across the U.S., found that the combined risk of developing CKD or HF, or dying, was 33% on average within the first five years of a T2D diagnosis, rising to 55% over 10 years.

The researchers say their findings underscore the importance of early, proactive and more holistic approaches to managing type 2 diabetes to help reduce the risk of serious complications.

T2D is projected to become the world's most prevalent epidemic disease, affecting an estimated 1.3 billion people by 2050. It frequently occurs alongside other conditions, including obesity, high blood pressure, HF, CKD and depression, contributing substantially to the global burden of multimorbidity. This causes considerable suffering for people living with T2D and economic stress for many countries, especially low- and middle-income countries.

However, how quickly and in what order people newly diagnosed with T2D develop serious complications such as CKD and HF is not fully understood.

To address these knowledge gaps, researchers analyzed real-world data from the CALOR observational study program to estimate the risk of developing CKD or HF following a new T2D diagnosis, the risk of developing the other complication within five years of the first, and the combined risk of developing CKD or HF, or dying, within five and 10 years of diagnosis.

They included 1,617,508 patients newly diagnosed with T2D between Jan. 1, 2010, and March 31, 2024, from across the U.S. The average age of participants at enrollment was 59, and 51% were female. Among the 13% of patients who had a body mass index (BMI) recorded, the average (median) was 30.9 kg/m².

Almost three-quarters (72%) of participants were also living with dyslipidemia (high levels of cholesterol and other fats in the blood), and more than two-thirds (68%) had high blood pressure.

Within five years of a first T2D diagnosis, the risk of developing CKD first was more than twice that of developing HF first (19.0% vs. 8.3%).

However, among people who developed HF first, there was a 42% risk of developing CKD within the following five years. Conversely, among those who developed CKD first, there was a 23% risk of developing HF within the following five years.

"Our findings clearly show how the serious complications associated with type 2 diabetes rise sharply over time as the common combination of obesity, abnormal blood fats, high blood pressure and higher blood sugar damages blood vessels and vital organs," said professor Naveed Sattar of the University of Glasgow in Scotland, U.K., who co-led the study.

"Our results emphasize the critical importance of detecting and treating type 2 diabetes thoroughly at the earliest opportunity to help reduce the risk of serious complications."

The study has several limitations, including its observational design, which cannot establish causation. It also cannot rule out selection bias, a common limitation of real-world evidence. For example, differences in the risk of developing CKD or HF by race and ethnicity may have influenced the results.

Key medical concepts

Diabetes Type 2Heart FailureChronic Kidney DiseaseDeath

Clinical categories

EndocrinologyNephrologyCardiologyCommon illnesses & Prevention Provided by European Association for the Study of Diabetes Who's behind this story?

Sadie Harley

BSc Life Sciences & Ecology. Microbiology lab background with pharmaceutical news experience in oil, gas, and renewable industries. Full profile →

Andrew Zinin

Master's in physics with research experience. Long-time science news enthusiast. Plays key role in Science X's editorial success. Full profile →

Citation: Kidney disease, heart failure or death risk climbs to 55% 10 years after type 2 diabetes diagnosis (2026, September 26) retrieved 26 September 2026 from https://medicalxpress.com/news/2026-09-kidney-disease-heart-failure-death.html This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.