Oil, LPG tankers reaching Mumbai despite US blockade of Hormuz. Here's how

Oil and LPG tankers and vessels have reached Mumbai from the Gulf despite the US blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. Experts say routes through Iranian waters and naval coordination limit the blockade's reach. We analyse whether the speculated routes are actually feasible.

In Short

• US Hormuz blockade shows limits as tankers keep slipping through
• Iran coastal route may still allow ships to sail from Kharg to Mumbai
• Pak waters may offer a route, but there are legal and political hurdles

The US vowed to choke the Strait of Hormuz after Iran refused to bend, but the results so far have exposed the limits of naval power in one of the world's busiest maritime corridors. The US Navy, deployed east of the Strait in the Gulf of Oman to monitor and restrict traffic entering or leaving the passage, has not been able to make the blockade airtight. Dozens of tankers have reportedly continued to slip through. There is also a route many observers have pointed to that could allow ships to sail directly from Iran's Kharg Island to Mumbai.

The latest example of an Indian ship crossing the strait is the vessel Desh Garima. Though it came under Iranian fire along the tense route, it docked in Mumbai last Wednesday. The tanker carried 97,000 metric tonnes of crude oil from Ras Laffan in Qatar. Not just Desh Garima, over 30 other tankers have reportedly passed through the Strait of Hormuz since the US's blockade began on April 13. There is chatter about multiple non-Indian ships that have headed from Iran to India, though there has been no confirmation or denial either from Tehran or New Delhi.

"At least 34 tankers with links to Iran have bypassed the US blockade since it began," reported The Financial Times recently in an article in which it tracked dozens of ships coming out and going into the Persian Gulf.

Currently, 14 Indian vessels are present in the Strait of Hormuz region, according to Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal.

But what is this route that the vessels are taking to get to India? And is it really the same route that many experts have pointed out?

A speculated route was shared by Jim Bianco, president and macro strategist at the financial research and market analysis firm Bianco Research. He tweeted about the path Indian vessels could be following, along with a map. Days later, business influencer and podcast host Mario Nawfal also pointed out the same route.

They both said ships could hug the territorial waters of Iran, and enter Pakistani waters before they sail past the blockade.

We spoke to experts to find out whether Indian vessels can truly follow this route to exit the Strait of Hormuz, and what other options might exist.

WHAT ARE THE ROUTES THE VESSELS COMING TO INDIA CAN FOLLOW?

If a tanker gets loaded at Kharg Island, where over 90% of Iran's crude oil exports originate, it can then sail onwards through the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, depending on two routes available.

The first is the route highlighted by Bianco and Nawfal, which runs along Pakistan's long Makran coastline. By following it, a ship can pass directly from Iranian territorial waters into Pakistani territorial waters without entering international waters.

While the route is technically possible, as explored later in this article, the fact that it passes through Pakistani waters makes matters a little complicated for India.

Notably, the US Navy cannot simply stop vessels inside another country's territorial waters under normal circumstances.

Then, there is another possible route, where a ship sails along Iran's coast, then once it reaches the Chabahar Port, it can head south and enter international waters. From there onwards, it is a straight-line sail to any of India's western coasts, in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Goa, Karnataka, or Kerala.

Right now, the US's blockade jurisdiction applies in international waters only, linked to the conflict with Iran.

Navies cannot obstruct lawful commercial passage through an international strait so long as no illegal activity is involved.

So, there are at least two ways to get out of the Strait of Hormuz.

IS PASSAGE THROUGH PAKISTANI WATERS POSSIBLE FOR INDIA?

While there are at least two routes out of the Persian Gulf to India, one must wonder whether Indian vessels are even allowed in Pakistani territorial waters.

Under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), every coastal nation controls 12 nautical miles (22 km) of territorial waters. Foreign merchant ships enjoy the right of "innocent passage" through these waters. This means they can sail peacefully without stopping, trading, fishing, or posing any threat to the coastal state. As long as the vessel is simply transiting, the coastal country is generally not supposed to obstruct it.

Defence expert and senior journalist Sandeep Unnithan, explained, "There is no problem for a Pakistani merchant ship to pass through Indian waters and likewise no restriction for Indian vessels to sail through Pakistani waters. Even warships can pass through territorial waters, but they have to get clearance from the relevant State, which they may not get."

A retired senior Indian Navy officer offered a technical perspective on how Indian vessels might be navigating the US blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.

According to the former Commodore, the US blockade primarily targets ships entering or leaving Iranian ports. Neutral vessels, including Indian-flagged tankers or ships carrying cargo bound for India, are not the intended focus and face limited direct threat from American forces. "However, risks remain from the Iranian side, which has shown willingness to fire on vessels and impose its own restrictions," said the retired Navy officer, requesting anonymity.

The ex-officer said, "Practically, the situation is more complex, because most of India's trade travels on foreign-flagged ships, and in times of conflict, insurance premiums rise sharply while many commercial operators become reluctant to enter the area."

The Indian Navy, the former officer said, is playing a quiet but critical role here.

"Once a ship's passage through the Strait is cleared — often through case-by-case negotiations by the Ministry of External Affairs — the Navy is likely to meet it at a pre-arranged rendezvous point in the Gulf of Oman, safely away from both US and Iranian operational zones."

The officer emphasised that Indian Navy-escorted vessels would have "no need to hug the Pakistani coast or enter Pakistani territorial waters".

"From the Gulf of Oman, they can head directly to India's ports, Mumbai, or Kochi, or any other port in India," he said.

"Using Pakistan's waters is possible, but might be considered unnecessary and risky for Indian-flagged ships due to political complications and possible notification or permission requirements even under innocent passage rules," he explained.

Notably, days after the deadly Pahalgam attack in April last year, and after New Delhi banned the import of goods originating in or transiting through Pakistan as well as the entry of Pakistani ships into its ports, Pakistan barred Indian-flagged carriers from using its ports.

The reciprocal maritime bans between India and Pakistan remain in effect. They primarily target flagged vessels and port access, and do not automatically prohibit all commercial traffic, but create significant practical and political hurdles for Indian ships near or in Pakistani waters.

"The UNCLOS guarantees innocent passage in principle, but because of the complex relations, Pakistan can legally retain some discretion to regulate its waters," said the retired Navy officer.

India Today Digital reached out to the Directorate General of Shipping, Mumbai, to check whether Indian ships enter Pakistani territorial waters or not. However, the officials did not reveal the details, citing security issues.

AMERICAN BLOCKADE HAS LIMITS; US HAS NO AUTHORITY IN IRANIAN, PAKISTANI, INDIAN WATERS

US Central Command has so far directed 28 vessels to turn back and has boarded or detained a few ships. President Donald Trump has described the blockade as a "tremendous success" that gives America control over the Strait.

However, once a tanker enters any territorial waters, be it Iranian, Pakistani, or India, it moves outside the easy reach of US forces. The American Navy cannot enter these sovereign waters without permission.

The US says the blockade is hurting Iran's oil revenue. Yet the flow of discounted crude shows that blockades in the modern era are hard to make airtight.

A big loophole is that by using Iranian waters, a ship can move into international waters either by exiting near Chabahar Port or by hugging the Makran coast, entering Pakistani waters, and then sailing out into the Arabian Sea.

The journey from Kharg to Mumbai is very much possible, and this reality will likely influence energy security and diplomatic calculations in the region.

- Ends