Climate change likely to drive rodent-borne arenaviruses into parts of South America

Pranav S. Kulkarni, lead author, postdoctoral scholar in the UC Davis Weill School of Veterinary Medicine and Department of Population Health and ReproductionAs climate change accelerates, our study shows how the outbreak risk of dangerous New World arenaviruses could ride on shifting rodent populations to reach millions more people across South America."

South American New World arenaviruses

Where arenaviruses may next emerge

Pranav Pandit, senior author, assistant professor of veterinary epidemiology at the UC Davis Weill School of Veterinary MedicineOur study connects the dots between changing climatic conditions and land use, shifting rodent populations and human infection risk, making it possible to see where the next generation of zoonotic arenaviral outbreaks could emerge."

For example, the models project that:

• Guanarito virus, which is found in central Venezuela, is expected to spread to parts of Colombia, the borders of Suriname and northern parts of Brazil. 
• Machupo virus is expected to move from the plains and flatlands of Bolivia to the Andes foothills and mountain regions. 
• Junin virus is expected to move from the grassland regions to other parts of Argentina, reducing risk in some regions while expanding risk to other areas. 
• In all cases, populations with little or no prior exposure would be encountering these viruses for the first time, potentially increasing their vulnerability to infection and severe disease.

The risk of spillover is primarily driven by changes in temperature, precipitation and land use, such as expanding agricultural and urban areas within rodent reservoir habitats.

Coordinated, transboundary public health needs

"The first thing a study like this can inform is where we expect the risk to increase," Kulkarni said. "Then we can look at why it is happening in more detail, identify ways to reduce the risk, and start planning for the long term and ways to reduce the spread of disease."

The study's additional coauthors include Nuri Flores-Perez of UC Davis and currently San Diego Zoo, and Andie Jian, Brian Bird, Christine Johnson and Marcela Uhart from the UC Davis Weill School of Veterinary Medicine.

Source:

University of California - Davis

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