Commentary: Pakistan-Afghanistan border clash could turn into a wider water crisis
With India suspending the Indus Waters Treaty and Afghanistan planning to build a dam on the Kunar River, Pakistan has reason to be anxious, say NUS’ Dr Amit Ranjan and Pacific Forum’s Genevieve Donnellon-May.
by Amit Ranjan · CNA · JoinRead a summary of this article on FAST.
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SINGAPORE: Water has long been a critical dimension of Afghanistan–Pakistan relations. But against the backdrop of deteriorating political ties, water is emerging as a potential flashpoint that could turn a border dispute into a wider crisis.
In October, the two countries engaged in some of the worst violence in recent years. The two sides agreed to a ceasefire on Oct 19, which remains fragile amid attacks in December. It was during the earlier clashes that Afghanistan’s Taliban government announced plans to build a dam on the Kunar River.
Known also as the Chitral River in Pakistan, it originates in northern Pakistan, enters Afghanistan and meets the Kabul River near Jalalabad in Nangarhar province. Kabul River empties itself in the Indus River near Attock in Pakistan’s Punjab province. Physically, Pakistan has some upstream advantage but it is water-dependent in the downstream region. It is estimated that Pakistan receives around 21 billion cubic metres of water annually from the Kabul River system.
The directive came from Supreme Leader Mawlawi Hibatullah Akhundzada, with the acting water minister declaring on social media platform X that “Afghans have the right to manage their own water”.
Pakistan responded sharply. Defence Minister Khawaja Asif warned the Taliban against proceeding unilaterally with plans to build a dam on the Kunar River, declaring that Kabul “cannot disregard Pakistan’s water rights”.
Historically, the Pakistani security establishment has supported the Taliban. And Pakistan welcomed the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan in 2021.
But relations have strained over the Afghan Taliban hosting the Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan or TTP), a group Islamabad accuses of carrying out militant attacks inside the country. Their relations also deteriorated over the status of the 2,600km-long Durand Line as the international border between the two countries, which some Taliban leaders have termed a “hypothetical line” or an “imaginary line”.
Amid the fighting, transboundary rivers are becoming an extension of broader strategic rivalry.
DEEP ANXIETY OVER WATER STRESS
Pakistan and Afghanistan share nine rivers, but do not have any formal agreement or joint management framework. Both countries face growing water stress.
Many parts of Afghanistan face water scarcity. Capital Kabul risks becoming the first modern city to completely run out of water. A recent report by non-governmental organisation Mercy Corps warned that, due to over-extraction and devastating climate change effects, Kabul’s aquifer levels have dropped between 25m and 30m over the past decade and will run dry by 2030.
Pakistan has been facing drought and floods, made more frequent and more intense by the climate change. Flooding in 2025 monsoon season affected around six million people, killing more than 1,000 and affected major crops like rice and wheat. Simultaneously, Pakistan’s per capita water availability is declining. It is estimated that by 2030 the country’s per capita water availability will fall to 795 cubic metres.
Afghanistan’s Kunar River dam will take time to build. Meanwhile, according to local media reports, Kabul is finalising plans to transfer water from the Kunar River to the Darunta Dam in Nangarhar, which will affect flow downstream in Pakistan.
THE TIMING OF DAM ANNOUNCEMENT
This is not the first time Afghanistan has raised the possibility of building dams on the transboundary rivers flowing into Pakistan. What is concerning is the timing and changed nature of political ties between the two countries.
During better times, in 2013, they had agreed in principle on the joint management of shared rivers and the building of a 1500 megawatt (MW) dam on Kunar River.
The present plan was wielded as a threat during the October cross-border skirmishes. It is worth noting too, that the clashes occurred while the Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi made a rare trip to India – signalling warming ties with India, Pakistan’s rival in South Asia.
During Mr Muttaqi’s visit to New Delhi, both sides issued a joint statement emphasising “the importance of sustainable water management” and interest in “cooperat(ing) on hydroelectric projects to address Afghanistan’s energy needs and support its agricultural development”.
Later, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal further noted that there is a “long history of cooperation on water matters” between the two countries. His remarks effectively indicate a new phase of pragmatic engagement that will help India to secure its interests in the country.
He also reiterated that New Delhi was prepared to support all Taliban initiatives related to water resource management, including hydropower projects. By doing so, India aims to maintain political, economic and strategic ties with a country where its presence had significantly diminished following the US withdrawal in 2021.
New Delhi’s stance builds on a history of water-related cooperation with Afghanistan, most notably the Salma Dam, also known as the India–Afghanistan Friendship Dam, on the Hari River in Herat province. Completed in 2016 with around US$300 million in Indian funding, the dam generates 42MW of electricity and irrigates about 75,000 hectares of farmland.
The project, while symbolising friendship, has also been a target of political and militant hostility: in 2017, Taliban militants attacked the hydropower dam, killing ten Afghan soldiers. Ironically, the same group now seeks India’s technical and financial assistance to replicate similar projects, reflecting the shifting pragmatism on both sides.
RIVERS ON TWO PAKISTAN BORDERS
By supporting Kabul in its water projects, New Delhi aims to fulfill overlapping objectives. This, however, has risks as the Pakistani power establishment does not like the Taliban to engage with India.
All this is notwithstanding India’s own dispute with Pakistan. In April, it suspended the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) that governs water-sharing with Pakistan, following a terrorist attack in Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir that New Delhi blamed on Islamabad which denied any role in it.
After the IWT suspension, Pakistan maintained that any disruption – whether natural or human-induced – in river flows could be interpreted as “an act of aggression”. Using the same rhetoric against Afghanistan could fuel mistrust and spark military escalation.
To address their water issues, the two countries have to first de-escalate tensions.
Dr Amit Ranjan is Research Fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore. Genevieve Donnellon-May is a Vasey Fellow at the Pacific Forum in the United States and an associated fellow at the Institute for Security Development Policy in Sweden.
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