Panama’s ocean lifeline vanishes for the first time in 40 years

· ScienceDaily
Source:Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
Summary:For decades, the Gulf of Panama has relied on strong seasonal winds to trigger upwelling, bringing cool, nutrient-packed water to the surface. But in 2025, this dependable event didn’t happen. Researchers point to unusually weak winds as the likely culprit, reducing ocean productivity and warming coastal waters. The surprise disruption highlights how vulnerable these critical systems may be to climate change.
Chlorophyll concentrations in the oceans around Panama (blue = low, red = high) in February 2024, showing peak productivity in the Gulf of Panama during a period of typical upwelling. Credit: Aaron O’Dea

Each year during Central America's dry season (generally between December and April), strong northern trade winds help drive an important ocean process in the Gulf of Panama. These winds push surface waters in a way that allows colder, nutrient-rich water from deep below to rise toward the surface.

This process, known as upwelling, plays a major role in the region's marine life. It fuels highly productive fisheries, helps shield coral reefs from heat stress, and keeps the water along Panama's Pacific beaches cooler during the busy "summer" vacation season.

A 40-Year Pattern Suddenly Changed

Scientists at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI) have tracked this seasonal upwelling for decades. Their records show that from January to April, the event has been a reliable and predictable part of the Gulf of Panama for at least 40 years.

But in 2025, researchers documented something they had never seen before. For the first time in their records, this essential oceanographic process did not occur. The usual seasonal cooling was weakened, and the expected surge in ocean productivity was also reduced.

Weaker Winds May Be the Cause

In a recently published article in the journal PNAS, the scientists suggest that a major drop in wind patterns likely drove the unprecedented failure. The finding shows how quickly climate disruption can interfere with basic ocean processes that have supported coastal fishing communities for thousands of years.

Researchers caution that more work is still needed to identify the exact cause and understand what the event could mean for fisheries.

Tropical Oceans Need Better Monitoring

The discovery points to the rising vulnerability of tropical upwelling systems. These systems are enormously important for ecosystems and coastal economies, yet they remain poorly monitored in many parts of the world.

The findings also highlight the need to improve ocean climate observation and forecasting across tropical regions.

The result is one of the first major outcomes from the collaboration between the S/Y Eugen Seibold research vessel from the Max Planck Institute and STRI.

Related Terms

Global warmingGlobal warming refers to an unequivocal and continuing rise in the average temperature of Earth's climate system. Since 1971, 90% of the warming has occurred in the oceans.Despite the oceans' dominant role in energy storage, the term "global warming" is also used to refer to increases in average temperature of the air and sea at earth's surface. Since the early 20th century, the global air and sea surface temperature has increased about 0.8 °C (1.4 °F), with about two-thirds of the increase occurring since 1980. Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at Earth's surface than any preceding decade since 1850.Climate change mitigationClimate change mitigation are actions to limit the magnitude and/or rate of long-term climate change.OceanThough generally recognized as several 'separate' oceans, these waters comprise one global, interconnected body of salt water often referred to as the World Ocean or global ocean. This concept of a global ocean as a continuous body of water with relatively free interchange among its parts is of fundamental importance to oceanography. The major oceanic divisions are defined in part by the continents, various archipelagos, and other criteria: these divisions are (in descending order of size) the Pacific Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean, the Indian Ocean, the Southern Ocean (which is sometimes subsumed as the southern portions of the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans), and the Arctic Ocean (which is sometimes considered a sea of the Atlantic). The Pacific and Atlantic may be further subdivided by the equator into northerly and southerly portions. Smaller regions of the oceans are called seas, gulfs, bays and other names. There are also some smaller bodies of saltwater that are totally landlocked and not interconnected…