Conservation research: Preserving existing Amazon forests is far more cost-effective than restoration

Study reveals that protecting intact and degraded standing Amazonian forests from wildfires and selective logging delivers significantly higher biodiversity and carbon benefits per dollar spent than restoring forest cover on cleared agricultural land

The decadal study led by an international research team warns that current global conservation investments risk becoming “a leaky pot” if active restoration policies operate without stringent protections for remaining standing forests.

Systematic counterfactual analysis across Pará

Conducted across more than three million hectares in the Santarém and Paragominas regions of the Brazilian state of Pará between 2010 and 2020, the investigation represents the first systematic comparative cost-benefit analysis of tropical forest conservation strategies.

The methodology integrated multi-tier ecological and economic datasets:

• Field sampling:

  • Empirical data collected from 381 survey transects spanning 38 catchments and 499 rural properties.

• Species modelling:

  • Distribution and occurrence mapping for 160 bird species (including indicator species like the Pygmy Antwren) and 426 tree species.

• Economic frameworks:

  • High-resolution satellite tracking matched with economic counterfactual scenarios to measure real-world land-use intervention costs against delivered ecological outcomes.

Key findings and policy priorities

1. Avoiding disturbances delivers highest ROI

   • Preventing forest degradation caused by wildfires and selective logging yielded the greatest overall benefits for forest biodiversity and was nearly as critical as avoiding clear-cut deforestation for preserving carbon stocks.

2. Restoration is expensive and vulnerable

   • Active restoration on agricultural land proved to be the most expensive intervention and delivered lower relative gains when implemented in isolation. Young restored stands also remain highly vulnerable to destruction from climate-driven wildfires.

3. Compound policy synergy

   • Net positive gains in both biodiversity and carbon retention across the region occurred only when protection against deforestation and protection against forest degradation were combined. Integrating all three strategies—protection, disturbance avoidance, and targeted restoration—delivered maximum ecological returns.

Conservation urgency driven by climate extremes

The study’s release coincides with the intensifying 2026 El Niño cycle, which amplifies dry-season heat and drought across the Amazon’s “arc of deforestation.”

Senior author Professor Jos Barlow and lead author Dr Leonardo Miranda emphasise that corporate supply-chain responsibility and state environmental budgets must urgently prioritise wildfire prevention and logging controls to ensure restoration funds are not wasted while existing carbon sinks degrade.