European heatwave is most severe ever recorded - study

The record-shattering warmth in Europe in recent days is the most severe heatwave ever recorded in the region and is unequivocally the result of climate change driven by the burning of fossil fuels.

That is the conclusion of a new rapid analysis of the heatwave conducted by World Weather Attribution climate scientists and published today.

The report says June is now warming faster than any other month across Europe, and the high daytime and nighttime temperatures experienced over the past week would have been virtually impossible just a few decades ago.

It says that if a similar heatwave had occurred in Europe 50 years ago, temperatures would have been about 3.5°C cooler.

It found that Europe's hottest daily temperatures are warming three times faster than the global average, while nighttime temperatures are rising at twice the global rate.

The study found that 45% of 854 cities across 30 European countries - including five cities on the island of Ireland - have already broken, or are predicted to break, their highest-ever heat stress levels.

This potentially puts the body's ability to cool itself at risk.

The Irish cities were Dublin, Belfast, Derry, Waterford and Galway.

The scientists found that the sweltering overnight temperatures that have kept many people across Europe awake are now 100 times more likely than they were 23 years ago, during the European heatwave of 2003.

The likelihood of the daytime temperature peaks recorded this week has also increased tenfold.

The scientists also state that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation warming event currently occurring in the equatorial Pacific Ocean played no role in Europe's heatwave.

Instead, the heat is being driven by a blocked high-pressure pattern that traps hot air over Europe and draws warm air northwards from the Sahara.

Heatwaves are known to cause more deaths in Europe than all other natural hazards combined.

Heat risk is concentrated in cities, where urban heat island effects, ageing building stock and socioeconomic inequalities combine to intensify exposure.

More than 60,000 heat-related deaths in Europe were attributed to extreme heat in 2022, and another 47,000 in 2023.

The scientists say the health impacts of the current heatwave will be severe, although they are only just beginning to emerge.

The report highlights that elderly people living alone, people facing socio-economic disadvantage or chronic illness, as well as homeless people and migrants, are among the most vulnerable to the impacts of extreme heat.

Health systems are also placed under mounting pressure as temperatures rise.

Dr Theodore Keeping, Extreme Weather and Wildfire Researcher at Imperial College London, said the speed of change is startling.

"Every few years we are seeing heat records shattered in Europe. This year it has been in consecutive months. In the UK, we are used to 'snow days' shutting down schools, but this generation is now growing up with 'heat days' as well," he said.

Carolina Pereira Marghidan of the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre said many people still live, work and study in places that are not designed for the temperatures we are now experiencing.

She called for greater investment in heat-resilient homes, cities and infrastructure to keep people safe.

Professor Friederike Otto, Professor of Climate Science at Imperial College London, said climate scientists are beginning to sound like a broken record and that it is now a question of what kind of future people want.

Professor Otto added that a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels is critical to avoid even higher temperatures and their consequences in the future.