Lake Mead’s sacrifice to prop up Lake Powell shown in poor outlook

The ramifications of propping up Lake Powell at Lake Mead’s expense are on full display in the federal government’s latest numbers for the two reservoirs along the Colorado River.

While Lake Mead may keep plunging until it’s firmly below 1,000 feet in elevation or close to it in summer 2028, Lake Powell is projected to recover in a big way, surpassing its current level in those same months.

The Bureau of Reclamation’s 2-year study now breaks down the most possible elevation levels in two scenarios: one where 6 million acre-feet of water is released from Lake Powell per year and another where 7 million acre-feet of water makes it downstream.

In both paths that the Trump administration charts, Lake Mead, the reservoir that provides 90 percent of Southern Nevada’s drinking water, is headed for trouble. By the end of November, forecasters say the reservoir will dip below 1,035 feet — a critical elevation level below which only five of Hoover Dam’s 17 turbines can generate power without risk of damage.

Lake Powell’s infrastructure woes, particularly questions about the functionality of the “river outlet works” at low levels, may play a role in how the federal government decides to move water around. Below a certain level at Lake Powell, officials have sent mixed messages about whether the river outlet works would function even though they are the only release method.

The news comes after Southern Nevada’s water managers sued the Trump administration over what they call unfair, mandatory cuts to the state’s share of the Colorado River. All seven states that rely on the river agree that Nevada has led the pack in terms of water innovation overall, stretching its tiny allocation while adding millions of residents.

Federal water managers’ decisions do sway the reservoir levels, such as when they decided this year to reduce flows out of Lake Powell, while moving in water from an upstream reservoir named Flaming Gorge. Most water users can agree, as well, that the Colorado River Basin has a significant overuse problem, especially when it comes to agriculture.

However, climate change and the erratic weather conditions that come with it have long prevented proper buildup of snowpack in the Rocky Mountains and complicated whether snow in the mountains transfers into true reservoir storage.