Seattle weather: 2026 could have second driest chunk of October on record

Seattle is headed for the second driest start to October it’s had on record, National Weather Service meteorologists say.

We’ve been starved of that simple fall treat, smelling the earthy goodness of wet leaves on the ground and marveling as that sheen of rain glistens over their fiery colors. And it likely won’t be until this weekend that we’ll see another drop from the sky.

As of Sunday, Seattle had the eighth driest start to October on record, the weather service’s Seattle office said in a post on X, noting that if there’s no rain by Wednesday, we’ll rise to third. 

But it turns out we’re likely to set a higher record, though it might not be one you’d like to boast — unless you’ll settle for any record. So far, the Seattle office said we’re drier than Las Vegas, which has seen 15 times our rainfall this month, San Diego with 13 times as much, and Phoenix with five. 

We’ve only gotten eight-hundredths of an inch of rain so far this month, said NWS meteorologist Dana Felton. If we get less than four-tenths of an inch more of rain by the end of Sunday — which seems to be the case — it will be the second driest October up to that point. 

We’re in for another stretch of mild weather, as seems to have been the default setting for Seattle this month as we dangle and swing between gray skies and crisp fall vibes to bluebird days and warm, sunny weather. 

Tuesday and Wednesday will look a lot like the last couple of days, with fog and low clouds in the morning that burn off to reveal blue skies and highs in the mid-60s, a few degrees higher than our average this time of year, said NWS meteorologist Steve Reedy. 

A trough will start to develop off the coast and build a weak frontal system, Reedy said, but it looks as if it will fall apart. The weather will stay dry, so the only change Thursday will be a drop in the temperature down to the high 50s. 

Friday will act as an “interlude” with an outlook similar to the previous day’s before a system arrives over the city with an upper level low coming from Alaska, Reedy said.

Over Saturday and Sunday, that could mean rain — but only a tenth to quarter of an inch between the two days. 

The worst year for October rain and wet leaf smelling (up until the 25th, that is) was in 1987 when Seattle got five hundredths of an inch, Felton said.