What's at stake in Moldova's weekend run-off election?

Moldova's Constitutional Court on Thursday validated the results of last month's referendum, formally recognizing the country's decision to join the European Union.

The "yes" result, however, was an incredibly close one, much closer than polls had predicted, and the road toward EU membership for Moldova is not expected to be smooth either.

Supporters of the measure attribute the much closer than expected result to Russian meddling in the run-up to the vote held on October 20, together with the presidential election.

Both campaigns were marred by massive Russian disinformation and an alleged vote-buying scheme said to have cost the Kremlin tens of millions of dollars. Some have described an atmosphere of bitterness and division with unprecedented mud-slinging and "hate speech," including ethnic slurs and fascist tropes, leaving the country, some would say, dangerously divided.

The top two presidential candidates, incumbent pro-Europe President Maia Sandu and pro-Kremlin former prosecutor general Alexandr Stoianoglo, face a run-off vote on Sunday.

"I hope that the pro-European forces, that Maia Sandu will win elections, but I am worried that this victory will be achieved with a small margin," Ludmila Barba, host of Moldovan program The European Vector, told VOA. "That was the case with the referendum. And this state of affairs means that this antagonism in society will remain."

Moldova is a parliamentary republic and those elections will take place next year. Right now, the government is controlled by Sandu's PAS party, but some predict it could lose control next year.

Analysts expect Moldova will remain a battleground for hearts, minds and political allegiances for some time to come and Moscow is no doubt poised to further exploit divisions. It has been throwing its weight around Moldova since the collapse of the USSR but has been honing its meddling technique since last year's local elections.

"It was like a bootcamp for them [the Kremlin] for interference and then they scaled it," Orysia Lutsevych, deputy director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at London's Chatham House, told VOA. "They've seen what worked and that was vote-buying, trying to put eggs in different baskets … but underneath it all, having influence, having them on the payroll of Russia."

The most audacious part of the scheme was the participation of fugitive Russia-based oligarch Ilan Shor, who was convicted in 2017 of banking fraud in Moldova. He is accused of buying off a network of up to 300,000 Moldovans, paying them to vote against Europe in last month's referendum.

"They have been paid for their activity, from the equivalent of 50 euros a month and up. It's not big money, but when you take into account the complicated economic and social situation in Moldova, for people with a low income, these 50 euros are important," Barba said.

President Sandu called out the scheme but was unable to stop it.

Moldovan runoff follows Georgia election

Moldova's runoff comes on the heels of a hotly disputed victory for Georgia's pro-Russian Georgian Dream party.

Georgia's opposition-aligned president, Salome Zourabichvili, declared the results illegitimate, describing a "Russian Special Operation" to undermine the vote and she is fighting back, at this point, with uncertain effect.

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE]) has noted voter intimidation, ballot stuffing and bribery in Georgia, but Moscow claims its hands are clean. Regardless of the ultimate outcome, the showing by the pro-Russian party is a dramatic turn for a country that had full-blown war with Russia in 2008.

"I would never have imagined Russia or a Russian agenda having such a strong comeback in Georgia. There was for a while so much open hatred toward Russia, that anything suspected to be related to Russia would immediately be rejected," Lutsevych said.

"This is where Russians are smart in how they play the subversion game. They are not openly saying this is a Russian agenda."

The recent passage in Georgia of a "Foreign Agent" law, an act clearly inspired by Moscow, got the EU to pause further discussion about bringing Georgia into the bloc. And the conduct of last week's elections was to be another "litmus test" for Brussels on Tbilisi's readiness to join.

While there may be clever, forward-thinking manipulation on the part of Moscow, Barba says one cannot ignore the effect of the immediate raw rage coming from the Kremlin.

"This is the first election since the Russian aggression in Ukraine began. The situation is more complicated because Russia is furious that it didn't manage to take Ukraine in three days and that makes it more aggressive," she says.

"Since it was not able to clinch victory in Ukraine, it is going after smaller ones in Georgia and Moldova to prove or assert its status."

For the people of Moldova, fear has become the main theme of the elections. Barba points out that the pro-Russian side has said that if Moldova stays close to Russia, "the country will be safe. That Ukraine has war because they went toward the EU."

"That narrative is going around. And thepro-Europeans say if we end up with Russia, we will have war, we will be dragged in. Both sides are trying to say that the other option could lead to war."

According to Lutsevych, fear can ultimately drown out Sandu's main message that Moldova can have a brighter future with Europe. And this is taking its toll on some young members of Sandu's team.

"They don't feel it's a fair game. They don't feel they can win against that. It's so powerful. It's hard to compete when someone like Russia fuels anger, fear, and you have to compete on a positive agenda."

Still, getting into Europe is a fight in itself and Lutsevych praises Sandu for taking up that fight. And the nature of this election campaign, she concludes, has put Moldova more front and center on Europe's agenda and perhaps put enhanced focus on what Russia is doing on the sidelines of the Ukraine war.